Saturday, February 9, 2013

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Southern Plains Later Today / Tonight...

Low level moisture is returning to southern and central Texas this morning, as noted by the dew point temperatures in the 50s (green) and 60s (yellow) on the latest surface map above.  Southerly winds will continue to pull this moisture Northward into much of central and eastern Texas throughout the day today and into tonight.

Meanwhile, as you can see on the same image, very dry air is in place in west Texas and the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region, resulting in the development of a fairly strong dryline from near the Texas/Okalhoma border in the Texas panhandle, Southward into west-central Texas.

Increasing instability in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere will gradually move out over the western High Plains later this afternoon and into this evening, likely resulting in scattered thunderstorm development along the dryline.

Some of these storms may become severe, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threat (although a few isolated tornadoes are possible) as noted by the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK: 

Severe storms are possible within the brown and yellow shaded areas on the image.  As described above, the initial threat will exist in far West Texas and the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region late this afternoon and into this evening.

Overnight tonight, a threat for more widespread thunderstorm development will exist across central and eastern portions of the outlook area, as upper level energy increases and the surface dryline and a Pacific cold front move East/Southeast across the region.

The potential exists for a fairly extensive squall line to develop along the surface boundaries across central and northern Texas, into the Red River region with Oklahoma after 12 Midnight tonight, into the pre-dawn hours on Sunday.  Damaging wind gusts and some spotty hail will be the primary threats at that time, and includes the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex region.

If you live across the above mentioned areas, please remain alert later this afternoon, this evening and especially tonight.  If you live in central and eastern portions of the severe weather outlook area, be sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings overnight tonight.

The threat of strong to severe thunderstorm activity will shift East/Southeast into the lower Mississippi Valley region on Sunday, as indicated by the severe weather outlook below:

Here again, damaging wind gusts and some marginally severe hail will be the primary severe weather threats on Sunday.  Strong to severe storms will likely be ongoing around sunrise Sunday near the Western edge of the outlook area, with the activity expected to progress Eastward during the day.

A few tornadoes will be possible on Sunday, particularly with any storms that are able to form out ahead of the main line and become well organized.

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ryan hearne said...

so maybe this time around austin will have its chance at severe weather compared to last time when the dryline pushed ahead of the front..hopefully it doesn't happen again.. though I believe just strong storms developing around 6:00...

ryan hearne said...

might a watch be issued for ctrl or north texas?

Rob White said...

Sorry Ryan, I only just now saw your comment on the blog. For some reason I did not receive e-mail notification of several comments on blogger yesterday. I'm looking into what may have caused that problem.

We chatted on facebook during the night, so I know you know the answer to your own question now. At least we got some rain out of it...not enough, but we'll take what we can get!

Thanks again for reading,