Sunday, February 24, 2013

Severe Weather Threats Tonight through Tuesday...

The powerhouse storm system that will cause blizzard conditions over the central Plains and northern parts of the southern Plains will also have a "warm" side, which will include a threat of severe weather further South.

The threat will begin late this evening and tonight in Texas.  The latest outlook for tonight from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK is shown  below:

Focusing on the Texas/southern Oklahoma portion of the outlook, severe storms will develop along and ahead of a strong cold front/dryline over West Texas late this evening, and continue Eastward overnight.

The latest run of the high resolution NAM computer model forecasts development between 10 and 11pm this evening over northwest Texas, as circled in red on the image below (which is valid at 11pm CST):

Hail to severe limits is the primary threat with the activity tonight, although damaging winds and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.  The activity will progress Eastward and gradually develop Southward overnight, reaching the I-35 corridor by 5 or 6am CST, as shown on the image below:

As the front progresses Eastward during the day Monday, so will the threat of severe weather.  The outlook for Monday and into Monday night calls for an enhanced threat of severe storms, including a few tornadoes, over the Deep South and Mississippi Delta region, as shown in red on the image below:

Severe storms are possible Monday and Monday night anywhere within the brown, yellow and red shaded areas on the above image.  The red area is meant to depict where the highest probability of severe weather is forecast to take place.

The primary severe weather threats on Monday will be damaging winds and hail near severe limits.  An enhanced tornado threat will take place with any storms that are able to form ahead of the main line of storms, much as we've seen with the last few severe weather episodes across this same region.

By Tuesday, the threat of severe weather will spread into the Southeastern part of the U.S., including northern Florida:

As you can see, some of the severe weather threat, particularly tonight and Monday, will take place during the nighttime hours.  If you live in the areas outlined for a severe weather threat during those time periods, please make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings after you go to bed at night.

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