Thursday, March 7, 2013

Threat of Strong to Severe Storms In Texas This Weekend...

Southerly winds are on the increase across the Lone Star State this afternoon, and are pulling low-level moisture into the state from the Gulf of Mexico, as shown on the latest surface dew point and wind analysis above.

The influx of moisture will combine with increasing energy in the middle and upper atmosphere to produce a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across the region beginning tomorrow and into Saturday.

The latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for Friday afternoon and evening is shown below:

The greatest threat of severe storms is indicated in yellow, which includes the Lubbock and Amarillo areas (where a blizzard took place last week, as you'll probably recall).  Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary threats, although a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

A surface cold front will move Southeast across the region on Saturday afternoon and evening, causing the severe weather threat to shift East/Southeastward as shown on the image below:

It is possible that a few strong storms could venture into the Austin-San Antonio corridor ahead of the front on Sunday morning, but at this time there does not appear to be a widespread severe weather threat for this region, mainly due to the time of day.

Just like on Friday, the primary threats for Saturday afternoon and night will be strong, possibly damaging wind gusts and hail.

Along with the threat of strong to severe storms will come much needed rainfall for some, with widespread 1-1.5 inch amounts possible within the blue shaded areas from late Friday through Sunday:  

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1 comment:

ryan hearne said...

What % chance would u give of a severe storm within 25 miles of austin?