Saturday, March 16, 2013

Severe Weather threat Deep South thru TN & OH Valley Region On Monday...

A strong disturbance in the upper atmosphere will combine with increasing low-level moisture and instability to produce a threat of severe weather across a fairly large area on Monday afternoon, evening and into Monday night.

Right now the wind profile in the lower through middle atmosphere is forecast to be most supportive of damaging straight line wind gusts, as well as hail around 1 inch in diameter.

An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially within the green shaded area on the image above (click to enlarge).  We'll need to monitor the region closely on Monday for any specific areas where the surface winds are more of a South to Southeast direction, which would result in locally enhanced tornado potential in any such area.  Any isolated storms that form out ahead of the main line that is expected to develop should also be monitored closely for signs of tornado potential.

Widespread rainfall, some heavy, will also take place in association with this system on Monday.  Rainfall amounts in excess of 1 inch are likely from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley region on Monday and into Monday night:

If you live or have travel plans across the severe weather threat area for Monday, please pay attention to the weather.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest updates and possible warnings.

Make sure to identify your best sheltering option at home, work or school ahead of time, that way you can move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning issued for your area.

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