Saturday, February 19, 2011

Active Weather Pattern Emerging Once Again

The above radar image shows widespread precipitation across the southwest, associated with a strong upper-level weather system.  This system will lift East/Northeast through the Southwest into the Rockies today into Sunday.  Widespread rains of 1 to locally 2 inches can be expected:

While this system will bring beneficial rains to the southwest today, widespread ice and snow can be expected in portions of the Rockies, northern Plains and into the Midwest as the weekend progresses.

Below is the probability of 6 inches or more of snow accumulation for today and tonight:

A foot or more of snow is possible in the following areas during the same time period:

At the same time, a threat of significant icing will develop over portions of the northern Plains into the Midwest later today and into tonight.  The image below shows the probability of one-quarter of an inch or more of ice accumulation (which can cause significant disruption to power via downed tree limbs, power lines, etc.):

By Sunday into Sunday night, the focus of heavy snow shifts into the Plains and Midwest.  Below are the probability maps for greater than 6 inches and 12 inches of snow during that time period:

Significant icing will be also be possible during the same time period across portions of the Midwest into the Ohio Valley:

By Monday, the heavy snow threat will shift further East, including much of New England:

A threat of significant icing will also exist over portions of the Ohio Valley:

Further South in the "warm sector" of this storm system, there is a chance for heavy thunderstorm activity across potions of the central Plains tonight and into Sunday.  Currently, no severe weather "risk" areas are outlined by the SPC, but this system bears watching over portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Iowa.  The greatest threat would likely be hail to severe limits in some thunderstorms in this region.

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