Thursday, March 3, 2011

Severe Deja Vu?

The above image shows the SPC's latest severe weather outlook for tomorrow.   Severe storms are forecast within the green outlined region of eastern Oklahoma into much of Arkansas and southwest Missouri.   Look familiar?  It should, because severe weather has occurred in this same region in each of the last 2 episodes so far in this early part of the season!

A cold front will be pressing to the South and East through the outlook area on Friday afternoon (see latest HPC surface forecast map valid 6pm CST on Friday below):

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front across the outlook area by late afternoon and continue into the evening.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the greatest threats, however an isolated tornado also cannot be ruled-out.

The only limiting factor in making this a significant severe weather outbreak (so far) appears to be a lack of low-level moisture, especially compared to the last two events.  Moist, more unstable air is in place along the Gulf Coast and across Southeast Texas, and is expected to surge Northward overnight and early Friday into the outlook area.

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