The above image is the latest severe weather outlook (green outlined area) for today into tonight from the SPC. The overall outlook area has not really changed since my last post yesterday evening. The SPC has issued a Public Severe Weather Outlook due to the threat of particularly damaging tornadoes tonight over Louisiana and Mississippi.
Below is the latest forecast surface weather map from the HPC, valid 6pm CST this evening:
We're probably looking at 3 waves of severe storms today, the way things are shaping up at this time. The first severe potential will come from thunderstorms that could develop along and North of the warm front across portions of Louisiana into Arkansas and southern Missouri, as early as midday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the greatest threat in this area, with isolated tornadoes possible particularly in any storm that forms right along the warm front. This threat will spread Eastward into the evening hours.
The second wave is likely to take place along the cold front/dryline from central and eastern Oklahoma into northcentral and northeast Texas late this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms in this region will be more isolated, but if they are able to develop could be even more severe, with very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. This threat will spread Eastward into the evening hours.
The third, and perhaps most intense, wave of severe weather will take place tonight after dark across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, along and East of the cold front/dryline and south of the warm front. Thunderstorms in this area will have the potential of producing large hail, damaging winds and strong tornadoes. This is a particularly dangerous situation in that the greatest threat to this region will take place after dark.
Residents across the entire risk area (as well as adjacent areas) should remain very alert this afternoon, evening and tonight as threatening weather approaches. If you live in the region that could be affected tonight after dark, please make sure to have a NOAA Weather Radio or other device/method available to receive severe weather warnings even in the middle of the night. Such devices are available at most large retailers such as Wal-Mart, Target and Radio Shack.