Scattered thunderstorms are trying to develop over southwest Oklahoma and extreme northwest Texas at this hour, as shown on the latest radar image from the Frederick, OK site below:
This activity will likely continue to develop and begin to mature over the next couple of hours as the atmosphere heats and becomes more unstable. By mid to late afternoon, some of the storms are likely to become severe with very large hail and damaging winds the primary threats initially.
As the afternoon progresses, the wind profiles in the lower and middle atmosphere will become more favorable for storms to produce tornadoes. An increasing tornado threat will develop by late afternoon and peak during the evening hours, generally from southwest into northcentral Oklahoma and adjacent portions of far southern Kansas. A few strong tornadoes are possible, as indicated within the black hatched area on the latest SPC tornado outlook below:
Very large hail, some in excess of 2 inches in diameter, can also be expected with severe storms that form across this region during the afternoon and evening hours. The highest risk of such hail will be within the red shaded and black hatched area on the image below:
A Tornado Watch is about to be issued for this region, valid until 9pm CDT. See the "Current Severe Weather Watches" box on the right hand side of the blog navigation menu for details.
Folks living across this region should remain alert this afternoon and evening. Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest information and possible warnings. Take the time now to review severe weather safety tips and be prepared to seek shelter immediately if threatening weather approaches your area.
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