It's been relatively quiet across the southern Plains this evening, especially as compared to yesterday evening. Thunderstorms are currently breaking out in the Texas panhandle, and will continue moving Southeast across the immediate area before diminishing by around Midnight (due to the loss of daytime heating). Very large hail is possible with this activity in the Texas panhandle for the next few hours.
During the overnight hours tonight and into the pre-dawn hours Wednesday, thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the Oklahoma/Kansas border (in northcentral Oklahoma and southcentral Kansas), along the nose of an increasingly moist, unstable airmass flowing Northward across the region.
While widespread and/or organized severe weather is not expected, some of these thunderstorms may produce hail near severe limits overnight as they organize and move Southeast across eastern Oklahoma and toward western Arkansas by dawn.
The above image is the latest run of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, an experimental, short term computer forecast model. The valid time of the image is 6am CDT tomorrow, Wednesday, morning.
As you can see, the model is forecasting a swath of thunderstorms to extend from near Wichita, KS across the Tulsa Metro area, and to the Arkansas border near Fayetteville by that time. While the model forecast as to the location of the thunderstorm activity should not be taken as exact, it should give you a good idea as to what is expected to unfold later tonight after Midnight.
Heavy downpours of rain and some hail near severe limits can be expected with the activity overnight.
The threat of severe weather will be more significant back out West across the high Plains tomorrow, and will become increasingly more significant as it spreads Eastward across the central and southern Plains on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
Folks living across the central and southern Plains region from Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas should prepare now and be ready to put severe weather safety precautions into action toward the end of the week.
Stay tuned for a detailed outlook as to the end of the week threat in a more detailed post tomorrow.
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