Saturday, April 14, 2012

Storms "Lining Out" Along Cold Front to Move East Overnight...

A cold front has caught up with the dryline responsible for this evening's discrete tornadic supercells. As a result, a solid line of storms is currently forming from northwest Oklahoma, south/southwest into northwest Texas.  This line will continue developing Southward while moving Eastward overnight.

Here is how the experimental HRRR computer model forecasts the progression of the line overnight, and I agree with the general timing based on current trends.

The line will reach the OKC Metro area just before dawn (image below valid 5am CDT):

...the Tulsa Metro area by around 6 or 7am CDT:

...the DFW Metroplex by around 7 or 8am CDT:

...and the Austin-San Antonio corridor along I-35 by mid-morning, around 10-11am or so.

Since the activity is forming a solid line, the threat of significant tornadoes is not as high.  Tornadoes cannot be ruled out completely, but they would likely be shorter lived and less intense than what we've seen from discrete supercells this evening.

With that said, damaging straight line winds will be a threat, perhaps in excess of 70 mph in some areas.  Large hail is also possible, particularly early tonight (generally before 3am).

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