Above is the latest severe weather outlook for this afternoon through tonight from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. Severe storms are forecast within the yellow shaded area on the image.
There are two basic areas on which to focus within the overall severe weather outlook area. The first is associated with a weak disturbance moving toward the North/Northeast along the middle Texas coast. This disturbance is currently causing strong thunderstorm activity in the Houston area, and a threat for strong to severe storms will continue to spread North/Northeast into southeast Texas and adjacent portions of Louisiana during the day today.
Hail and strong, gusty winds will be the primary severe threats in this area.
Further West, a surface front and dryline are forecast to extend near the Western edge of the severe weather outlook area, from central and western Kansas in to western Oklahoma and west Texas by late afternoon.
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along these boundaries by late afternoon, with large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible. Very large hail (2 inches in diameter or greater) is possible within the red and black hatched area on the image below:
Once developed, this activity may organize into one or more thunderstorm complexes that will move Eastward overnight and into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday. It is unclear at this time exactly where those complexes may develop and/or threaten overnight...stay tuned for updates today, especially if you live toward the East of the initial severe weather outlook areas.
If you live in the severe weather threat areas for today, please remain alert to the possibility of severe weather during the indicated time periods. Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for later statements and possible warnings. Also, please make sure that you've identified the best sheltering option for your location as well.
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