Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Severe Weather Update for the Deep South / Lower MS Valley Region...

An area of shower and thunderstorm activity is developing over central and northern Louisiana at this hour, well ahead of a line of thunderstorms along the cold front further to the West and Northwest.

If this activity is able to organize and intensify this evening, a locally higher risk of tornadoes may result across northern Louisiana, southern and eastern Arkansas, western Mississippi and western Tennessee - as compared to what we've seen so far today.  This would especially be the case with any storms that are able to remain relatively isolated and become well organized.

Otherwise, a line of severe storms will move West to East across the region later this evening, as the cold front approaches from the West. The activity currently extending from Ft. Smith, AR to Dallas to Waco will intensify and become better organized as it moves East into the region this evening...

The primary threats with the line of activity will be intense wind damage, with possible brief tornado spin-ups, much like we've seen throughout the day today, though on a larger scale as the upper-level storm system to the West moves over the region and enhances lift.

If you live across the aforementioned areas of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Tennessee, please remain alert this evening.  Make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings, and be prepared to seek shelter immediately if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

Regardless of any specific tornado threat across the region, due to the strength of the jet stream winds that will be flowing across this region this evening and early tonight, wind damage could be particularly intense and widespread.  I strongly suggest taking the same precautions with a severe thunderstorm warning as you would with a tornado warning this evening, just to be safe.  Wind gusts well in excess of 70 or 80 mph will be possible with the strongest storms, regardless as to whether or not any specific tornado threat materializes.

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ryan hearne said...

as the line pushes into austin i believe that its gonna be a complete miss

Rob White said...

Not to confuse anyone, but this post was regarding the MS Valley storms.

Ryan is referring to the Austin, TX area, and yes, the outflow/dryline is outrunning the developing showers, which makes it nearly impossible for thunderstorm development to take place.

As we figured...only a slim chance for a storm here in the Austin, TX area today, but it would have been a nice show if it had...

Meanwhile, folks to the East are (or probably will be) wishing they had the same outcome later this evening or tonight...

ryan hearne said...

yeah sry i should of asked this on the other post well maybe next time...if the drought doesnt keep the storms away, i mean austin always sees at least 2-8 severe storms a year so maybe next time.