Winter Storm to Impact the South

While a large part of Texas will be enjoying much needed rain tonight & early Sunday, the same storm system will be producing a round of winter weather, which is looking increasingly significant for a large part of the South from Sunday into Monday.


Below is the latest forecast from the National Weather Service's HPC, showing the threat of at least 4 inches of snow from 6am CST Sunday through 6am CST Monday:

The blue outlined region from northeast Texas through the Mississippi Valley and into Georgia/Tennessee shows at least a 10% probability of 4 inches of snow.  The green outline corresponds to a 40% probability (from the northeast corner of Texas through the southern half of Arkansas and into the Mississippi Valley), and the red outline (over southwest and southcentral Arkansas) points to a 70% probability of at least 4 inches of snow.


Below are the GFS Computer Model forecasts of accumulated snow at 6 hour intervals beginning 12 Noon CST on Sunday, through Monday morning (click to enlarge):

GFS Forecast Accumulated Snow thru Noon CST Sunday 1-9-11

GFS Forecast Accumulated Snow thru 6pm CST Sunday 1-9-11

GFS Forecast Accumulated Snow thru Midnight CST Monday 1-10-11

GFS Forecast Accumulated Snow thru 6am CST Monday 1-10-11

Along and South of the heavier snow band will come a freezing rain/ice storm threat.  The map below shows the probability of at least one-quarter inch of ice accumulation for the same period of time:

As you can see, the greatest threat of significant icing is forecast in band from northern Louisiana through central portions of Mississippi and Alabama, into extreme west-central Georgia.  

Below are the GFS Computer Model forecasts of accumulated freezing rain (ice) at 6 hour intervals beginning 12 Noon CST on Sunday, through Monday morning (click to enlarge):

GFS Forecast Accumulated Ice thru Noon CST Sunday 1-9-11

GFS Forecast Accumulated Ice thru 6pm CST Sunday 1-9-11

GFS Forecast Accumulated Ice thru Midnight CST Monday 1-10-11

GFS Forecast Accumulated Ice thru 6am CST Monday 1-10-11

The threat of ice will then spread East into the Carolinas during the day on Monday:

Residents of the affected areas should make final preparations for this storm today.  Power outages and/or poor road conditions could result in very difficult times on Sunday and Monday in the affected areas.