A Combination of Spring and Winter for the First Week of May...

I know it's not the first full week of May this week, but the calendar will flip on Wednesday, and some of you may be flipping out over the (winter) weather by that time as well, so I figured the headline is justified...

A strong area of low pressure will move across the Plains and Midwest this week, producing a variety of weather conditions.  As I mentioned in a post last week, some of that will include a threat of snow in areas that are certainly not used to seeing such conditions in May of all months!

First, dealing with the severe weather threat, conditions appear to be coming together for isolated to scattered severe storms both Monday and Tuesday, and perhaps a threat of more widespread and significant severe weather in spots on Wednesday.

Below are the severe weather outlooks for the first 3 days of the work week, respectively:

As you can see, the threat is forecast to expand in both coverage and intensity as we progress through mid-week.  The primary severe weather threat for Monday and Tuesday will be large hail and damaging winds, with an increasing threat of tornadoes by Wednesday, particularly within the green shaded area on the last image above.

At least some threat of severe weather will shift into the eastern U.S. toward the end of the week, and folks in that region should stay tuned for updates over the upcoming days.

Now, on to the wintry side of things - yes, I said wintry even though today is April 28th, and we're talking about the first part of May!

The potential exists for measurable snow across significant portions of the central and northern Plains and Midwest for the latter one-half of the upcoming work week.

The image below shows the probability of 1 or more inch of snow accumulation for the period 7pm CDT Tuesday through 7pm CDT Wednesday (or nearly the first 24 hours of May):

Sure, it's not like the cities that are forecast to receive snow aren't used to it, but we're talking May for crying out loud.  Many locations across this region will break records for late season snowfall the way it looks right now (even if little more than an inch of accumulation takes place).

So, it looks like we're in for a wild and crazy week of weather for sure.  Buckle your seat belts and stay tuned!

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Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Unsettled Weather to Continue This Week...

While I don't see any "major" severe weather "outbreaks" in the offing for this week, there will be several opportunities for strong to locally severe storms across portions of mainly the southcentral and southeastern part of the country...

For today, the primary threat will extend across a small pocket of the central Plains, mainly across southern Kansas and Oklahoma:

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms are likely to form along and either side of a cold front that will be making its way across the area later this afternoon and into this evening.  Large hail is the primary threat, although an isolated tornado is also possible.

By Tuesday, the front will progress to the Southeast, with isolated to widely scattered strong to locally severe storms possible along and either side of it once again:

Hail and strong wind gusts are the primary threats for tomorrow, although once again an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with any isolated storm that is able to become well organized.

Rainfall in excess of 1 inch will be fairly widespread this week, from the Midwest into the central and southern Plains, with several pockets of precipitation in excess of 2 inches from Kansas and Oklahoma into Arkansas and southern Missouri:

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Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Severe Weather Shifts into Ohio/Tennessee Valley Today...

The threat of severe weather continues to shift Eastward today, with the primary concern extending from the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region into primarily Northern portions of the lower Mississippi Valley.

All severe weather modes are expected, from hail and damaging winds to tornadoes.  There is some risk of a strong tornado or two, particularly in association with any storm that is able to form out ahead of the main line and become well organized.  A wind damage threat will also be widespread, especially within the yellow shaded and red hatched area on the image above.

Tornado Watches are already in effect within the pink shaded areas on the map below:

The red shaded area indicates a "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Tornado Watch which includes the cities of Indianapolis and Ft. Wayne.

While some circulations or generally brief spin-ups are certainly possible along the main thunderstorm line, as I mentioned above, the strongest tornado threat would be in association with any storms that form out ahead of the line, so be sure to watch for that if you live in these areas.

The wind damage could also become particularly widespread and intense in some areas, particularly within the red hatched area on the top image.  This is a day to take Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for high winds seriously, particularly in these areas.

If you live in or have travel plans across this region today or tonight, please make sure to pay attention to the weather and be ready to seek shelter on short notice, no matter where you may find yourself.  

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Severe Weather Update: Central/Southern Plains...

Tornado Watches are now in effect for the areas outlined in pink on the above composite radar image.  The watches run through the evening hours and include the cities of Wichita Falls, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Joplin, Springfield, Columbia, Jefferson City and St. Louis.

As you can see, thunderstorms continue to form along the Western and northern peripheries of the watch areas and move to the North/Northeast.  This trend will continue throughout the remainder of the afternoon, with very large hail and damaging wind gusts possible with most any storm that forms and becomes severe.

Over time, the wind profile will become more and more favorable for the development of tornadoes, particularly across the Oklahoma and northwest Texas watch area, into southeast Kansas.  One or more strong and/or long track tornadoes are possible in this area mainly from late afternoon into this evening.

If you live in or have travel plans across this region this afternoon or evening, please make sure to pay attention to the weather and be ready to seek shelter on short notice, no matter where you may find yourself.  Also, folks near the Eastern edge of these watches and on Eastward need to be sure to have a way to receive weather warnings overnight tonight, as the threat will continue into the later hours...

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Severe Weather Threat Plains/Midwest Today; A Strong Tornado Is Possible...

As we've been talking about for several days now, today appears to hold the highest potential for significant severe weather across the central U.S.  Above is the latest severe weather forecast for today (which is unchanged from the outlook that we provided yesterday).

I expect strong to severe thunderstorms to become widespread within the yellowish-green shaded area by late this afternoon and this evening.  Some of the storms within this area will be capable of producing very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter), damaging winds and a few tornadoes.  A strong and/or long track tornado is possible in this area.  

This enhanced risk of severe weather includes the cities of Wichita Falls, Lawton, Altus, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Chanute and Joplin.  If you live or have travel plans in these areas, please be on a high state of alert this afternoon, evening and tonight.

Elsewhere, a threat of strong to severe storms will exist across a rather broad area extending from northwest and west-central Texas into the Midwest.  Large hail and damaging winds are likely with any severe storms that form in these areas, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially within the green shaded area.

If you live or have travel plans in the severe weather risk areas for today, please remain alert.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest information, watches and possible warnings.  Make sure to identify the best sheltering option wherever you'll be this afternoon and evening, and be ready to move there quickly if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.  

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Tornado Chronicles: Shuqualak MS Tornado of 4-11-13...

A strong, long track tornado struck portions of east-central Mississippi and west-central Alabama during the afternoon hours of April 11, 2013.  The above photo was taken by Leonard Kingery near Prairie Point, MS.

Below is a video of the tornado from the same location as the still photo, as captured by Tony Sudduth (warning, some foul language at times):

In all, the tornado was on the ground for just over 68 miles and was rated EF-3 intensity by the National Weather Service (NWS) damage survey team.

The maximum winds associated with this tornado are estimated at 145 mph, as evidenced, at least in part, by the total collapse of this radio transmission tower located in Noxubee County, MS:

One person was killed and 9 others were injured in association with the tornado, which was as much as 3/4 of a mile wide at one point.  Please click the track image below to enlarge:

The tornado initially touched down about 3 miles Southwest of Damascus, MS at  approximately 11:31 a.m. CDT, and lifted 3 miles East/Northeast of Bigbee Valley, AL at approximately 12:48 pm CDT.

The tornado tracked through a relatively rural area, causing widespread damage to trees and power lines.  Several homes and businesses were also affected, especially near Shuqualak, MS:

If you  have an interest in this tornado event, please bookmark the post and check back for additional information, photos and videos as they become available.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Update on Severe Weather Threats This Week...

A strong area of low pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere will move East into an increasingly moist and unstable airmass over the Plains the next few days, resulting in several rounds of severe weather.

Below is the latest outlook for today:

It's important to keep in mind that since we'll still be well out ahead of the main upper-level energy today, the severe weather threat will be relatively scattered in nature (albeit across a potentially large geographic area as shown above).

Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns this afternoon and evening, with an isolated tornado threat across mainly the West Texas portion of the outlook (shown in green).

A more widespread threat of severe weather, some possibly significant, is taking shape for tomorrow:

Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be widespread with the activity tomorrow, along with a threat of tornadoes.  As I pointed out in a post on Sunday, the primary mitigating factor for significant tornado development tomorrow is the fact that we will (1). have widespread activity fairly early on in the day that will tend to cut down on the instability in some areas and (2). the primary focus for severe thunderstorm development during the peak heating hours will be in the form of a line along the cold front.  This tends to create more of a damaging wind threat than a significant tornado threat.

As I pointed out on Sunday, it will be important to monitor any storms that are able to form out ahead of the main line and remain relatively isolated.  If such a storm becomes well organized, then a strong tornado is possible.  Please be sure to keep an eye out for those types of storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially if you live or have travel plans within the yellow shaded and red-hatched area on the image above.

For Thursday, the severe weather threat will shift East/Southeast into the Mississippi Valley region:

Widespread, locally heavy rainfall can also be expected in association with the system this week, with rainfall amounts in excess of 3-4 inches across much of the Midwest:

If you live or have travel plans across the severe weather threat areas described above for the next few days, please stay alert and make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, and that your best sheltering location has been prepared just in case!

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

Severe Threat Begins Today, Ramps-Up through Mid-Week...

In a fashion similar to that of last week, a threat of severe weather is forecast to develop out over the central Plains today:

...spreading slowly toward the Southeast for Monday:

...and Tuesday (when coverage will likely increase):

By Wednesday, the threat will spread from central Texas into the middle Mississippi Valley, along and ahead of a strengthening cold front:

Each day, large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible.  The tornado threat will be lowest today, and increase somewhat each day thereafter.  On Wednesday, the primary mode of severe weather is likely to become a line of storms along the cold front, so the highest tornado potential that day will be with any storm that is able to form out ahead of the main line and remain relatively isolated.

If you live across the aforementioned areas, please stay alert in the upcoming days and make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings, and that your best sheltering location has been prepared and is ready to go just in case!

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!

The Tornado Chronicles: Hazelwood (St. Louis Area) Tornado of 4-10-13...

A strong tornado struck the Hazelwood and Florrisant areas of northwest St. Louis during the evening hours of Wednesday, April 10, 2013.  The preliminary National Weather Service (NWS) damage survey has rated the tornado EF-2 intensity, with maximum winds estimated at 115-125 mph.

The tornado initially touched down at approximately 8:00 PM CDT in the Bridgeton area, near I-270 and St. Charles Rock Road.  It then continued to the East/Northeast for approximately 7 miles before lifting just East of St. Ferdinand Park in Florrrisant at approximately 8:05 PM CDT:

The tornado was as many as 500 yards wide at one point, and caused numerous injuries but, thankfully, no fatalities.

Below are some damage photos that were initially provided via social media:

The following aerial photos were provided by KSDK TV, and show a variety of both tornado and straight line and/or microburst wind damage across the area:

Particularly within the last picture, you can see how the debris (including what appears to be several trees) were spread out like a fan.  This is suggestive of very strong, microburst type winds:

Indeed, the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), an extra sensitive radar located near the St. Louis Airport designed to detect wind shear and/or microbursts for aviation concerns, detected very strong winds of 70-80 mph in several pockets across the area that evening:

If you're interested in this tornado event, please bookmark this post and check back for updates that will be forthcoming as more details are obtained over the coming days.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook

• Photos, videos and more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!