Saturday, April 6, 2013

Update on Upcoming Severe Weather and Tornado Threats...

Overall, little has changed since my post yesterday, however I did want to update you on a threat of severe weather that may develop as early as tomorrow afternoon and evening across portions of the High Plains.

Of the upcoming 4 days of expected severe weather (Sunday through at least Wednesday), the threat for Sunday appears the least (in terms of magnitude) overall, but it will still pose a risk of at least scattered severe storms, especially across portions of Kansas:

The atmosphere will still be "setting up" for the more significant events that are expected Monday through Wednesday, but enough instability should be present by Sunday afternoon and evening to produce scattered strong to severe storms along and ahead of a dryline and to the South of a warm front across the Sunflower State.

Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out.  

By Monday, a more significant severe weather threat will develop, initially across much of the same area as the day before:

As indicated by the reddish-orange shaded area, some "significant" severe storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening.  Such a threat would include very large (i.e., 2" diameter or greater) hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

Tuesday continues to be the day that appears to have the highest potential for "significant" severe weather, including tornadoes:

As we discussed yesterday, very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter), damaging thunderstorm winds and tornadoes are likely with severe storms on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Conditions continue to appear favorable for one or more strong and/or long tracked tornadoes on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  This threat includes the cities of Tulsa, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Fayetteville, Ft. Smith, Joplin and Chanute.

By Wednesday, the threat will shift Eastward into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley region:

There continues to be some question concerning how widespread heavy precipitation will be on Wednesday, which could mitigate the severe weather potential somewhat, especially as compared to what is expected on Tuesday.   Otherwise, conditions will be favorable for significant severe weather once again within the reddish-orange shaded areas.  This includes the cities of Little Rock, Shreveport, Jackson, Baton Rouge and Memphis.

This is a potentially dangerous weather situation that is shaping up, particularly for the period Monday through Wednesday (with special emphasis on Tuesday afternoon and evening).  Please pay attention to the weather if you live in the indicated areas.  Take some time now to review severe weather safety and preparedness tips, and plan where your best sheltering option will be at home, work or school.  Some of the severe weather threat will also take place at night, so make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings during the overnight hours.

We'll continue to monitor this situation with additional updates forthcoming as details become more clear.  In the meantime, feel free to keep track of things on the Severe Weather Homepage of our sister site, WeatherGuidance. Check for new features and updated content that will be added to that page throughout the day today!

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

Coming April, 2013:  "The Tornado Chronicles" full website!
 Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)
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• Daily tornado/severe weather outlook
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Mark Oleg said...

Hello Mr. White
I am not in these areas listed; I live in Atlanta, GA. When I looked at recent models, it seemed to me, that I would not be in the heart of this risk. However, areas north of Atlanta in North Georgia, especially the Northwest region, could still a lot of severe weather. Please tell me your thoughts about my area; I live in the northern suburbs of Atlanta.
Thank you

Rob White said...


Thanks for the note. Right now, it appears to me that the best chance of thunderstorm activity in your area will be during the late Wednesday night / Thursday morning time period.

Severe weather potential tends to be lower during that time of the day, and it also appears as though rain will be rather widespread in your area by that time, which would also tend to mitigate the severe weather threat overall.

I'd say strong, gusty winds and heavy rainfall would be the primary threats for you the way it looks now...

Thanks for reading!