Thursday, October 25, 2012

Continue to Believe Sandy Will Deal Major Blow to the Northeast / Mid-Atlantic...

I posted on Facebook a moment ago that I would have a full update on Sandy with impact graphics, etc. tomorrow, and I still plan on doing that.... but I just wanted to make a quick post to show folks how the 2 major computer model players are "behaving" today.  

The European (ECMWF) model continues to show a landfall on the Delmarva peninsula, with the image below valid 8am EDT on Tuesday morning, October 30th, after the center has moved inland and is forecast to be just Southwest of the DC Metro area:

Meanwhile, the U.S. based GFS model continues to depict landfall further and further ot the Southwest, and as of the latest run is now showing the point of impact along the middle to upper Jersey shore at 8am EDT on Tuesday:

Either of the above scenarios would result in major impacts with respect to wind, rain and storm surge in all of the "big cities" from Norfolk and Richmond through Baltimore/Washington, Philadelphia, New York City, Providence and Boston.

As you can see by the above model depictions, the wind field associated with Sandy will be huge, with sustained tropical storm force winds possible well inland as far as much of the Ohio Valley.

Cold air continues to appear likely to be pulled into the Western and Northwestern side of the system as well, with a significant snow event possible in that part of the storm system.

Power outages will be widespread.  As if strong winds weren't enough, many trees are still full of leaves across the region, which will it that much easier for branches (as well as entire trees) to be toppled.  Tides along the coast will be abnormally high anyway due to the presence of a full moon.  This, coupled with the enormous power of Sandy's wind field will cause inundation of many coastal areas with respect to storm surge flooding.

As I mentioned in yesterdays post, if you live anywhere from the Carolinas through Boston, please continue to make preparations for the arrival of Sandy.

I will have a much more in depth post tomorrow, including the latest expected impacts across the region, so stay tuned...

As you might imagine, we are seeing lots of new visitor traffic here on the blog with the approach of Sandy.  Welcome visitors!  Please don't bookmark any particular post for updates, as new posts will be made each time we have new information to pass along.  Please check the homepage of the blog and refresh there for the latest posts...

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