After reviewing the overnight computer model data, there are no changes to the detailed post that I made yesterday evening concerning Sandy's impacts on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. If anything, the latest runs have further solidified my thinking, and continue to point toward a likely landfall of the center along the Jersey coast. This means that the "worst case scenario" situation appears on track with respect to the NYC Metro area. Please refer to that post for details.
The models have sped up the system a bit, and now suggest that a landfall of the center may occur during the pre-dawn hours of Monday Night and/or early Tuesday morning. This is really not a significant change, as the broad wind field of the system (as described in yesterdays post) means that impacts will be felt well before the center makes landfall.
I will be monitoring visible trends and incoming model data today and will issue another detailed update later this afternoon - or earlier if needed.
I will be making a post on the snowfall portion of the system shortly. That is an aspect of this storm that I did not cover yesterday, as I wanted to emphasize the dangers from wind, rain and storm surge at that time.
One more note, the NHC has, so far, indicated that Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane Watches and/or Warnings are not likely to be issued North of the Carolinas (where they are currently in effect - see image below). This is because they feel that the system will become "extra-tropical" by the time it makes landfall further North. I don't necessarily agree with that at this time, as I feel that the jury is still out on what type of system Sandy will be by then. I am also concerned that folks in its path will take the system less seriously if these warnings and advisories are not posted.
I think it is very important to keep in mind that regardless of what "official" category is given to Sandy, and regardless of whether or not an "official" Hurricane Watch or Warning is in effect for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast, you will feel the affects of a hurricane on Monday and Tuesday, and perhaps a major one at that. Please don't take this situation lightly due to official government action (or inaction). I strongly advise that you continue to prepare for this dangerous storm if you live in this region.
Today and Sunday would be the days to gather up the last of your needed supplies (bottled or gallons of water, prescription and other medication, extra cash, propane for the grill, canned food and a manual can opener, batteries, etc.). Go ahead and get that out of the way if you live in this region, that way you can beat the rush and sit back and watch the storm's progress knowing that you are prepared for the worst.
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