Amazing Videos of a Strong Tornado in Russia

The above video pulls together several pieces of footage that look like something you would see in "tornado alley" (except for the architecture, of course). The strong tornado shown in the videos took place on Sunday, 7-31-11 in Blagoveshchensk, Russia.  That city is located in the far southeast part of Russia, near the border with China (see map below).  From the power flashes to airborne debris, this is a rare sight for this region - and even more so to have the event captured on video!

According to media reports (and confirmed by parts of the video), damage is widespread and significant across the city of just over 200,000 people, where a state of emergency has been declared.  Amazingly, only 1 person is being reported as dead so far, with "dozens" injured.  Based on the video, I fear that the death toll may rise as further damaged structures are examined.

Significant tornadoes are relatively rare in Russia.  In June 1904, at least 30 people were killed when two tornadoes moved through the eastern part of Moscow.  At least three powerful tornadoes killed more than 400 people in Belyanitsky, Ivanovo and Balino in western Russia in June of 1984.  In recent years, a weak tornado struck eastern Moscow on June 4, 2009, causing widespread damage (see photo below) but thankfully no fatalities:

I'll be sure to update this post with damage photos and/or video on this most recent event as they become available...

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Likely Depression Soon to be "Emily"

The area of disturbed weather now 650 miles East of the Windward Islands that I first told you about yesterday appears to have organized into a Tropical Depression (even though it hasn't been "officially" classified as such by the National Hurricane Center - NHC).  Still dubbed "Invest 91" at this time, the system is shown within the yellow circled area on the recent satellite image below:

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to fly into the system later today.  It appears as though the NHC is going to wait for that data before reclassifying the system to a Depression or perhaps right into Tropical Storm Emily.

Conditions are favorable for rather rapid development of this system over the coming few days, with most computer models forecasting the system to approach Puerto Rico by Wednesday evening.  The latest computer model composite tracks are shown below:

We'll have more on this system after the Hurricane Hunter data come in later this afternoon...

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Future "Emily" Developing in Atlantic...

A large area of low pressure continues to organize fairly rapidly about 900 miles East of the Windward Islands this morning. This system has been dubbed "Invest 91L" by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).  Based on its organization and development over the past 12-24 hours, I would expect this system to be upgraded to either a Tropical Depression, or perhaps right into Tropical Storm status before the weekend is over.  If this system becomes a named storm this weekend, it would be called "Emily".

Computer forecast models generally take this system on a West / Northwesterly track over the next few days:

Interests across the central Tropical Atlantic, including Puerto Rico, should keep a close eye on the development and progression of this system in the coming days... 


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Don - The "Tropical Storm" that Wasn't....

The above visible satellite image shows the remains of Don near Laredo, TX at 10am CDT. The system fell apart very rapidly literally as it came on shore yesterday evening along the Texas coast South of Corpus Christi.  The radar image below shows what little rain is even left in association with the system this morning:

The rapid demise of Don was a real disappointment (and one of fastest perhaps in history).  As you can't help but know if you read this blog very often, this region is in an extreme drought, and hopes were high that Don would help alleviate some of that pain.

So, what went wrong with Don?  Waters in the Gulf of Mexico were plenty warm enough to support further growth and intensification, but conditions above the surface level were less than ideal.  Dry air was being filtered into the Western edge of the system by a layer of Northerly winds several thousand feet off of the surface.  This effectively limited the development of Don before he made landfall, and once that landfall was made on the semi-arid (thanks to the drought) shores of South Padre Island, the system diminished rapidly.

The image below shows the life cycle of Don from Google Earth.  The first 3 storm icons are wrong - they should be green "Tropical Storm" icons like most of the rest (Don was "born" a Tropical Storm - he was never initially classified as a Tropical Depression).  I have added the 4pm CDT position notations and the points at which there was any change in wind speed:

Oh well... better luck next time, Texas.  This was a great opportunity to get some decent rain without a lot of potential wind damage - and it sure is sad to see such an opportunity lost...

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Center of Tropical Storm Don Making Landfall on South Padre Island, TX

At 7:34pm, the center of Tropical Storm Don was making landfall on South Padre Island, TX, about 37 miles South of Corpus Christi, or 32 miles Southeast of Kingsville.




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Center of Don Approaching Coastline...

The above image was just taken from the Corpus Christi radar, and shows the center of Don (red circled area) about 7 miles offshore of Padre Island.  It appears that the center of Don will make landfall about 30 miles Southeast of Kingsville (or about 35-40 miles South of Corpus Christi), by 7:30 pm CDT.

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Center of Don Approaching Texas Coast - Winds Tame So Far

The above image was taken just a moment ago from the Brownsville, TX radar. The small red dot in the middle of the white circle shows the approximate location of the center of Tropical Storm Don at 5:45 pm CDT.  This position is about 25 miles off of the Texas coast.  Based on the movement of Don on the 4pm CDT National Hurricane center advisory (West/Northwest at 16 mph), we can expect landfall of the center about 40 miles South of Corpus Christi, along South Padre Island, during the 7 o'clock hour this evening.

I've been monitoring surface observations along the coast and on the data buoys out in the Gulf of Mexico, and thus far nothing too impressive has been recorded wind-wise.  There is a buoy about 15 miles South of the center, and so far the maximum wind speed it has recorded has been 21 mph.  Similar observations have been made along the immediate coastal bend during the last hour or so.

None-the-less, hurricane hunter aircraft measurements along with satellite and radar estimates indicate that steady winds of 40-50 mph with gusts of 60-65 mph are taking place near the center of Don.  This portion of the system will make landfall in a relatively unpopulated region, along South Padre island, about 40 miles South of Corpus Christi and 65-70 miles North of Brownsville. 

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Tropical Storm Don Nearing the Coast of Texas

At of the 4pm CDT National Hurricane Center advisory, the center of Tropical Storm Don was located about 95 miles Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX.  This position is also about 105 miles Northeast of Brownsville, TX.  Maximum sustained winds were 50 mph, and the minimum central pressure was 29.65 inches of mercury.  Don continues to move toward the West/Northwest at 16 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through this evening.

Based on the present location and movement, the center of Don will move onshore along the Texas coast about 40 or so miles South of Corpus Christi later this evening (likely between 8 and 9pm based on the current speed of movement).  With that said, it is important not to focus on exactly when and where the center will make landfall.  It is important to remember that the tropical storm force winds associated with Don extend just over 100 miles from the center at various points, which means that stronger winds will overspread the lower Texas coast well before landfall of the center.  Steady winds of 45-55 mph with gusts of 60-65 mph can be expected along the lower coast to the South of Corpus Christi anytime after 6pm CDT this evening.

Heavier showers and thunderstorms are also making their way to shore along South Padre Island at this hour, as shown by the latest image from the Brownsville, TX radar below:

Isolated tornadoes will become a threat with some of the thunderstorms and squalls that move onshore this evening, particularly to the "right" of where the center of the storm makes landfall.  This would include the Corpus Christi area, where coverage of the activity may be more scattered in nature, but the intensity of that activity could be even stronger.  Tropically-induced tornadoes are typically relatively weak and short-lived, however this is another hazard to be considered along the lower to middle coastal bend this evening.

Very heavy rainfall can also be expected in association with Don through Saturday.  The axis of heaviest rain, on the order of 3-5 inches with locally higher amounts, is forecast to occur within the purple shaded areas on the image below:

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Tropical Storm Don Update - 1pm Friday

At 1pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Don was located about 145 miles Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX. Movement was West/Northwest at 15 mph.  Maximum sustained winds were 50 mph, and the minimum central pressure was 29.65 inches of mercury.


Radar imagery from Brownsville, TX (which is located at the center of the image below) shows that heavier showers and thunderstorms are currently about 30-40 miles offshore of the Southern end of South Padre Island... and moving Westward.  Scattered, less intense, showers and thunderstorms are already moving inland to the North up toward Corpus Christi.

Most tropical systems produce the heaviest rainfall to the "right" of the center.  In this particular case, a band of stronger Northerly winds above the surface level are causing the heavier precipitation to focus to the "left" of the center.  This will tend to carry the heaviest, most widespread rainfall to the South of the Corpus Christi area this afternoon and evening.

Showers, thunderstorms and gradually the wind will be on the increase across the middle and lower Texas coast throughout the remainder of the afternoon and especially into this evening.  Tropical storm force winds currently extend outward about 105 miles from the center of Don.  With that in mind, and taking the current movement into consideration, tropical storm force winds (likely on the order of 45-55 mph with higher gusts) can be expected to develop along the coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi by early evening.  The center of the storm is forecast to make landfall about 30-40 miles South of Corpus Christi by Midnight.


Isolated tornadoes are also possible with thunderstorms that form in association with Don this afternoon and evening.  Tropically induced tornadoes are typically fairly weak and short-lived.


At this time, it does not appear as though Don will strengthen to hurricane force prior to making landfall, however high-end tropical storm force winds can be expected along the affected portions of the Texas coast:

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Outer Rain Bands of Don Nearing the Coast...

At 10am CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Don was located about 190 miles Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX. Don was moving West/Northwest at 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.  The minimum central pressure is 29.59 inches of mercury.


A recent image from the radar in Corpus Christi (below) shows scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the outer bands of Don are approaching the Texas coast at this hour:

Shower and thunderstorm activity will be on the increase across the coastal bend throughout the midday and afternoon hours today.  Some will produce locally heavy downpours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward about 105 miles from the center of Don.  With the present movement in mind, tropical storm force winds can be expected along the coast within the Tropical Storm Warning area (blue shaded area on the image below) later this evening:

As mentioned in a post yesterday evening, Don took an abrupt turn toward the West between 4 and 7pm yesterday, which has resulted in a track further to the South as compared to forecasts that had been issued earlier this week.  The center of Don is currently forecast (see map above) to make landfall along the Texas coast to the South of Corpus Christi just before Midnight tonight.

This further Southward track will unfortunately result in less rainfall potential for the Austin-San Antonio corridor tonight and Saturday.  However, much needed rain will fall further South across southcentral Texas, as shown by the latest rainfall forecast image below:

Residents along the Coast, particularly from the Corpus Christi area Southward, should finish preparations for Tropical Storm Don this morning.  Some further strengthening is likely before landfall, however it does not currently appear as though Don will reach hurricane strength.

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Tropical Storm Don Stronger - Tracking South of Original Forecast

At 10pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Don was located about 370 miles Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX, or 325 miles East/Southeast of Brownsville, TX.  Don was moving toward the West/Northwest at 13 mph.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 29.47 inches of mercury.

As reported earlier this evening, Don took a jog to the West/Southwest by about 60 miles between 4 and 7pm CDT, which has resulted in a shift in the forecast track for the next 24-36 hours.  The revised forecast track brings landfall of the center of Don along the Texas coast about 40 miles to the South of Corpus Christi around Midnight on Friday night/Saturday morning:

As a result, Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended Southward, from South of Port Mansfield to the mouth of the Rio Grande.  The warning continues Northward as far as San Luis Pass.

Residents along the middle Texas coast should not let their guard down just yet.  Systems as (relatively) small as Don are notorious for sudden fluctuations  in both movement and intensity.

Widespread, locally heavy rainfall will take place along and near the center of Don Friday night and Saturday.  Currently, the heaviest rainfall (on the order of 3-5 inches) is forecast within the purple shaded areas on the image below:

The location of the heaviest rainfall is highly dependent upon the exact track of the center of Don.  Any further change in track will result in a shift of the focus for the heaviest rainfall.  Lesser intense showers and thunderstorms will extend up to 200 miles either side of the center of the system.

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Don Appears to Be Strengthening After Turn...

Data coming in from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft at mid-evening indicates that the central barometric pressure in Tropical Storm Don is falling rather rapidly at this time.  Satellite imagery (shown above) also indicates that thunderstorm activity is currently increasing on all sides of the center.  

I would expect the current and forecast wind speeds to be upgraded on the next National Hurricane Center advisory at 10pm CDT.  Don also appears to be taking a turn back toward the Northwest after the 60 mile or so jog to the Southwest that he took earlier this evening....

Stay tuned for more information!

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Tropical Storm Don Takes a Jog to the Southwest...

Between the 4pm and 7pm CDT observations, Tropical Storm Don took an abrupt turn toward the West/Southwest, by about 60 miles. This "jog" is noted by the yellow circle on the above image.  The "TS" inside of the green symbols indicate the position of the center of Don at 4pm CDT (right part of yellow circle) and 7pm CDT (left part of yellow circle).

In a post earlier today, I noted that abrupt fluctuations in intensity and/or movement are not uncommon in association with a relatively small storm like Don.  Now that such a fluctuation has occurred, the $64,000 question is:  "what will he do now????"

Computer forecast models continue to "converge" on a landfall near the Corpus Christi area on Friday night:

...with the "official" National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast following in close proximity:

It is important to note that the above forecasts (computer and human) were made before the recent "jog" to the left that Don took during the past 3 hours.  

With that in mind, the main issue now is whether or not a "jog" back to the right will take place over the next 24 hours, or whether Don will assume a track more to the left of the current model and NHC forecasts.  Such is the hazard of trying to forecast the movement of a small (in size) tropical system.  Perhaps the next Hurricane Hunter aircraft observation of the system (which is underway at this time) will shed some additional light on this problem...

In case you were curious as to what the remainder of the 7pm observation of Tropical Storm Don told us...here are the particulars:  the center of the system was located about 410 miles East/Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX and moving West/Northwest at 16 mph.  Maximum sustained winds were 45 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 29.65 inches of mercury.

The more Don turns toward the left (South), the less widespread rain will take place in the Austin-San Antonio corridor, so I'm personally hoping that Don will decide to move back to the right before landfall (of course, my "desperate for rainfall" bias is rather obvious)...

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"New NASA Satellite Data Blow Gaping Hole in 'Global Warming' Alarmism"

An excellent op-ed piece was posted by James Taylor (a senior fellow on environmental policy at The Heartland Institute) on a blog at Forbes.com yesterday.  You can see his full posting here.  


The main point of the article is driven home in the first paragraph:


"NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted..."


As a little background... one of the main theories of the global warming alarmist crowd has been that the phenomenon will lead to higher humidity in the upper-levels of the atmosphere, which will cause more cirrus cloud development, thereby trapping greater amounts of heat in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The NASA satellite data cited in the article indicate that this is simply not happening.


The data cited in the article were reported in a recent study conducted in part by Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.  The results of that study were recently published in the peer-reviewed journal Remote Sensing.  


The article by Taylor goes on to state:


"...the central premise of alarmist global warming theory is that carbon dioxide emissions should be directly and indirectly trapping a certain amount of heat in the earth’s atmosphere and preventing it from escaping into space. Real-world measurements, however, show far less heat is being trapped in the earth’s atmosphere than the alarmist computer models predict, and far more heat is escaping into space than the alarmist computer models predict."


I wholeheartedly agree with the closing paragraph of the article, which states:


"When objective NASA satellite data, reported in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, show a “huge discrepancy” between alarmist climate models and real-world facts, climate scientists, the media and our elected officials would be wise to take notice. Whether or not they do so will tell us a great deal about how honest the purveyors of global warming alarmism truly are."




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Tropical Storm Don 10am Update - Warnings Issued for Texas

As of the 10am CDT advisory on Tropical Storm Don, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass along the Texas coast (which corresponds with the blue shaded area on the image below).  Remember... a Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warned area within 36 hours.

At 10am CDT... the center of Tropical Storm Don (located at the center of the satellite image below) was about 520 miles East/Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX, which is about 480 miles East/Southeast of Brownsville, TX.  Don was moving toward the Northwest at 14 mph.  Maximum sustained winds have risen to 45 mph, and the minimum central pressure was 29.56 inches of mercury.

For additional details on the forecast track and intensity of Don, as well as the associated rainfall potential for Texas, please see my earlier post here.


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Tropical Storm Don Continues to Advance Toward Texas Coast...

At 7am CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Don was located about 545 miles East/Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX, and was moving toward the West/Northwest at 10 mph.  Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 40 mph, and the minimum central pressure was 29.53 inches of mercury.

As you can see by examining the satellite image of Don above, the system remains very compact, with little to no expansion in size having taken place in the last 24 hours.  While this is good news as it means that no rapid intensification has taken place in the last 12-18 hours, it also makes it difficult to predict how the intensity will change over the next 24-48 hours.  Smaller systems often fluctuate wildly in intensity, with rapid cycles of both intensification and weakening possible in a short period of time.

The computer forecast models are also having a difficult time resolving the future strength of the system, mainly for the same reason described above.  They are, however, continuing to show that the system will remain on a path to make landfall along the middle to lower Texas Coast on Friday night or early Saturday morning:

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently forecasting landfall slightly to the left of the overall computer model projections, as shown on their latest forecast track image below:

Both the computer forecast models and the NHC forecast are indicating that the system will make landfall as a Tropical Storm, with maximum sustained winds of 55-60 mph currently forecast at the time of landfall.  As I mentioned a few paragraphs ago, a system of Don's size can fluctuate in intensity and/or  movement on short notice, so it is important for residents along the Texas coast to keep this in mind, as the forecast could change before landfall.

While the fact that Don is not currently undergoing any rapid intensification is good news as related to the overall potential for storm damage, it is bad news on the rainfall front.  Don't get me wrong, there will still be widespread heavy rainfall along the path of the system, but the fact that it has not grown in size means that the overall amount of "real estate" that will receive the most beneficial rain will remain relatively compact.  Below is the latest rainfall forecast for Saturday from the HPC:

Based on the current forecast path of Don, the most widespread and heaviest rainfall, on the order of 1.5 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts, will take place within the purple and reddish-orange shaded areas on the above image.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms producing lesser amounts of rainfall will take place to either side of this axis.  

The swath of heaviest, most widespread rainfall is highly dependent upon the exact track of Don both at landfall and about 12 hours afterward.  Keep in mind that this heavy rain forecast axis is likely to shift during the next day or so.  I'll keep updating the projection as the exact track of Don becomes more clear.

If you live along the middle to lower Texas Coast your Tropical Storm preparations should be completed today if at all possible.  Please review Tropical Storm and Hurricane Preparedness checklists, and make sure that you have a NOAA Weather Radio with battery back-up or some alternative means of receiving information available to you.

If you need a weather radio, I always highly recommend RadioShack due to their extensive line of radios available, their excellent customer service (they'll even help you program your radio if you need assistance) and the quality of the product offered in relation to the price.  While you're there, be sure to pick-up some additional batteries for your flash lights, and they even have emergency/backup power sources for your cellphone and/or smartphone as well.

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Tropical Storm Don Promises Much Needed Rain for Texas...

We're still 24-36 hours out from knowing exactly where Tropical Storm Don is likely to make landfall along the Texas coast early this weekend (likely as a high-end Tropical Storm or low-end Hurricane), but one thing is clear:  things are looking "up" for parts of the Lone Star state when it comes to rainfall!


Take a look at the latest satellite image of Don below:

As you can see, most of the widespread, heavier rainfall is taking place to the "right" of the center, as noted by the white circled area on the same image below:

This is normal for a tropical system.  If we take the latest computer forecast model guidance, shown below, you can see that the current "consensus" of the models is to bring the center of the storm onshore somewhere between Corpus Christi and Port O'Connor early on Saturday morning:

If we assume that the "envelope" of the most widespread, heavy rain remains the same relative to the center of the storm (and it may in fact enlarge prior to the system making landfall - hopefully), then we can assume that the area within the bright green colored line on the image below stands the best chance for widespread, heavy rainfall from Don during the first 12 hours of landfall:

The exact location of this heavy rain envelope will likely change as the exact track and intensity of Don becomes better known over the coming 24-48 hours.    In addition, keep in mind that widespread lighter rain showers and thunderstorms are likely to occur well out to either side of the heavier rain core that stays closer to the center of the system (again, particularly to the right of the center).

Regardless of how this exactly pans-out, it is safe to say that widespread, beneficial rains are on the way to some folks in much of central and eastern Texas this weekend.  Stay tuned for more details as the system approaches over the coming few days!

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Tropical Storm Don Entering the Gulf of Mexico - With Eyes on Texas

As alluded to in my last post on the subject, Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a closed circulation and strong enough winds within the former Tropical Wave off of the Yucatan Peninsula to initiate advisories on the system as "Tropical Storm Don" during the last hour.

At 4pm CDT, the center of Don was located 120 miles North of Cozumel, Mexico, or about 755 miles East/Southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  Present movement of the system is toward the West/Northwest at 12 mph.  Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 40 mph, and the minimum central pressure was 29.56 inches of mercury.


The initial National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track projects that Don will impact the coastline of Texas on Friday night or during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning (and is still forecast to be a Tropical Storm at that time):

I would like to caution all readers (and especially readers that are residents along the Texas Coast) that this is the very first projection issued by the NHC since the Hurricane Hunter aircraft passed through the system a short time ago.  The computer forecast models have not yet had any of the aircraft observations fed into them, so we'll have a much better idea as to the future track and especially the potential intensity of this system later tonight and Thursday morning, once those models have been run with that data.  It is still possible that Don will strengthen to Hurricane force prior to making landfall - so please do not let your guard down!

If you live along the Texas Coast, please start making preparations for a possible Tropical Storm or Hurricane on Friday night or Saturday morning.  Review preparedness tips and listen to NOAA Weather Radio (the folks at RadioShack will even help you program yours if you don't know how) or another reliable local source of weather information for later statements, watches and likely warnings.

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