Recent Heavy Snow Put a Dent in the Central Plains Drought...

Although its still a long way from over, a significant reduction in drought severity has taken place recently as a result of heavy snow across portions of the central and southern Plains states - particularly across Oklahoma and central & eastern Kansas.

As an example, take a look at this dramatic comparison picture from long time blog reader Dave Schweitzer's (you can follow him at @tornado_dave on twitter) pond near Calumet, OK:

Indeed, much needed moisture has fallen over 100% of the Sooner State for the last 30 days, with areas in red receiving over 5 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation: 

The same is true, though to a lesser magnitude, for a good part of the central Plains.  Note the pronounced dry exception, though, over a large part of the Midwest:

...and it remains very dry over a significant part of Texas:

It remains to be seen just how the major "storm track" (i.e., jet stream pattern) will evolve as we head into the spring.  We certainly hope that the recent improvement is a sign of a longer term trend and over a much larger area.  Stay tuned, as we should begin to see hints of the longer term trends during the month of March!

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NW Oklahoma / NE Texas Panhandle Big "Winners" With Latest Snowfall...

The above image shows the change in snow depth from 7am CST yesterday to 7am CST today.  The dark purple shading over extreme NW Oklahoma and the northeast Texas panhandle shows where 20+ inches of new snow fell.

Keep in mind, it was still snowing at 7 o'clock this morning on the northeast Kansas, Missouri and Iowa sides of the image, so the values in those areas aren't reflective of the total new snow yet...

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Powerhouse Storm Continues East/Northeast...

The powerful storm system that dumped heavy snow on Oklahoma and Kansas yesterday and last night continues East and Northeast today.  It is still snowing heavily in Kansas city and much of northern and western Missouri at this time, as well as over the southeast half of Iowa and northwestern Illinois.

Heavy, wet snow is causing major problems across the affected areas in Missouri, with several roof collapses and major power outages reported.  Check out this image posted on twitter by @thedraketaker, which shows the heavy, wet snow in Sedalia, MO a short while ago - and it is still falling heavily at this time:

A similar scene is visible in the Kansas City area, this one also via twitter by @Ginger_Zee:

Winter Storm Warnings (pink) and Winter Weather Advisories (purple) are in effect in association with this system today, with additional heavy snowfall likely, especially in the Winter Storm Warning areas:

The additional snow in Wichita yesterday put the city at a total of 21 inches for the month of February, which is a new "all time" record snowfall for any month there.

Meanwhile, on the southeast extremity of the storm, severe weather is possible today from Florida into the far eastern Carolinas.  A Tornado Watch is currently in effect for much of the central and northern Florida peninsula until 3pm EST.

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Coming March 2013:  The Tornado Chronicles full website!

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On the Warm Side of the Storm: Severe Weather/Tornado Threat Today...

As the blizzard continues to unfold over the central Plains, a threat of severe weather (including tornadoes) will develop further South today.

The latest outlook for today and tonight from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is shown below.  Severe storms are possible anywhere within the brown and yellow shaded areas on the image, with the greatest threat within the red shaded area:

Hail and strong, damaging wind gusts are the primary threats, however some tornadoes are also possible, especially this afternoon and evening and especially within and near the red shaded area (which includes Baton Rouge, New Orleans and Mobile).

Thunderstorms are slowly starting to develop ahead of the cold front over extreme eastern Texas and Louisiana at this time.  The activity is expected to increase by midday and especially into this afternoon, with severe storms becoming likely by that time.

If you live across this region, please remain alert today.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest information and possible warnings.  Please take a few moments this morning to review severe weather safety and preparedness tips and identify your best sheltering option should that become necessary today.

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Coming March 2013:  The Tornado Chronicles full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

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Blizzard Underway...

A full fledged blizzard is underway in the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle this morning.  This was the scene in Amarillo shortly before 7 a.m. today:

Winds are gusting 55-60 mph and the NWS has measured 11 inches of snow with 2 foot drifts at the office about 7 miles East of the city.

Similar conditions are in place across most of the Texas panhandle and into the Oklahoma panhandle as well.  TX DOT has suspended operations and have advised citizens to regard all major roadways as closed/impassable.

Blizzard conditions are developing in extreme northwest Oklahoma and southern Kansas as well, and such conditions will develop and increase East/Northeastward throughout the day...

The latest watch/warning/advisory map is shown above.  Orange = Blizzard Warning, pink = Winter Storm Warning, purple = Winter Weather Advisory, blue-grey = Winter Storm Watch.

Stay tuned for more...and be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter for additional, more frequent updates...

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  The Tornado Chronicles full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado outlooks/threat index

• Photos, videos & more!

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Severe Weather Threats Tonight through Tuesday...

The powerhouse storm system that will cause blizzard conditions over the central Plains and northern parts of the southern Plains will also have a "warm" side, which will include a threat of severe weather further South.

The threat will begin late this evening and tonight in Texas.  The latest outlook for tonight from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK is shown  below:

Focusing on the Texas/southern Oklahoma portion of the outlook, severe storms will develop along and ahead of a strong cold front/dryline over West Texas late this evening, and continue Eastward overnight.

The latest run of the high resolution NAM computer model forecasts development between 10 and 11pm this evening over northwest Texas, as circled in red on the image below (which is valid at 11pm CST):

Hail to severe limits is the primary threat with the activity tonight, although damaging winds and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.  The activity will progress Eastward and gradually develop Southward overnight, reaching the I-35 corridor by 5 or 6am CST, as shown on the image below:

As the front progresses Eastward during the day Monday, so will the threat of severe weather.  The outlook for Monday and into Monday night calls for an enhanced threat of severe storms, including a few tornadoes, over the Deep South and Mississippi Delta region, as shown in red on the image below:

Severe storms are possible Monday and Monday night anywhere within the brown, yellow and red shaded areas on the above image.  The red area is meant to depict where the highest probability of severe weather is forecast to take place.

The primary severe weather threats on Monday will be damaging winds and hail near severe limits.  An enhanced tornado threat will take place with any storms that are able to form ahead of the main line of storms, much as we've seen with the last few severe weather episodes across this same region.

By Tuesday, the threat of severe weather will spread into the Southeastern part of the U.S., including northern Florida:

As you can see, some of the severe weather threat, particularly tonight and Monday, will take place during the nighttime hours.  If you live in the areas outlined for a severe weather threat during those time periods, please make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings after you go to bed at night.

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Coming March 2013:  The Tornado Chronicles full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

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• Daily tornado outlooks/threat index

• Photos, videos & more!

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Major Blizzard to Impact Central / Southern Plains Tonight through Tuesday...

The latest National Weather Service advisories are shown above.  A Blizzard Warning is in effect for the area shown in orange.  A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the area shown in pink, and a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the area shown in blue-grey.  For definitions of what each of these advisories mean, please see page 8 of the winter weather safety and preparedness guide.

Overall, not much has changed since my detailed post of yesterday evening.  Below are the latest forecasts of total new snowfall from the NAM, GFS and European computer forecast models, respectively.  All are valid now through 6pm CST Tuesday:

While there are some subtle differences in each, the consensus continues to favor a swath of heavy snow extending from the far northeast Texas panhandle, through northwest Oklahoma, southcentral and eastern Kansas and into northern Missouri.  This generally includes the Woodward, Wichita, Emporia, Topeka and Kansas City areas.

The NAM model forecasts a maximum snowfall bullseye (near 30 inches) over northwestern Oklahoma.  The GFS is forecasting the maximum snowfall to take place along the Kansas/Missouri border, just to the South of Kansas City (20-25 inches).  The European is favoring a broader swath of maximum snowfall from east-central Kansas into northwestern Missouri, in or immediately South of the KC Metro area (12-18 inches), and another bullseye over northwestern Oklahoma (18-24 inches).

As I've been pointing out for several days now, a major threat with this system that we did not see in the last one will be very strong, gusty winds.  These winds will cause widespread blowing and drifting snow, with white out and blizzard conditions likely in many areas.  I believe much of the Winter Storm Warning area over southcentral, southeastern and east-central Kansas should be a Blizzard Warning.  Hopefully we'll see the NWS make that change soon.  Regardless, if you live in this region, prepare for blizzard conditions with near impossible travel conditions from late tonight through Tuesday.

I've had lots of questions about the expected Southern end of the heavier snowfall (i.e. 6 or more inches of snow).  The models have been consistent for several days now in keeping the heaviest snow to the Northwest of both the OKC and Tulsa areas.  There has been no change in that trend through this time.

Of those two particular metro areas, OKC is the one to keep an eye on, as any subtle change in the track of the surface low could result in locally heavier snow spreading into that area on Monday afternoon and evening.  Right now, I would expect 2-4 inches in most of OKC, with widespread blowing and drifting in strong, gusty winds.  Heavier amounts are likely just Northwest of there.  That forecast falls in line with the latest short range model composite, which is calling for just short of 4 inches at the OKC Will Rogers Airport:

For the Tulsa area, the same model composite calls for an average of 1-2 inches of snow before precipitation ends Monday night or Tuesday morning:

The track of the surface low pressure center would have to shift dramatically to the South in order for Tulsa to receive heavier snowfall, the prospect of which does not seem likely at this time.

Meanwhile, further North, the same short range model composite averages are calling for about 1 foot of new snow at Wichita:

...and 12-15 inches at Kansas City:

When you take snowfall of this magnitude, coupled with the forecast strong winds, very hazardous conditions will result.  If you live anywhere within the Blizzard and/or Winter Storm Warning and Winter Storm Watch areas, please finalize your preparations today, and be ready to "hunker down" tonight through Tuesday.

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  The Tornado Chronicles full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado outlooks/threat index

• Photos, videos & more!

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Update on Major Plains Winter Storm for Monday...

Not a whole lot has changed since my post this morning.   A major winter storm is poised to hammer the central Plains late Sunday into Monday and Monday night.  As I mentioned this morning and yesterday, a major player with this system will be the wind (which we did not have with the storm earlier this week).  Blizzard conditions can be expected in many areas, making an already hazardous situation that much worse...

The latest run of the European computer model continues to suggest that there will be two primary axes of heavy snow, one from the Texas panhandle and northwest Oklahoma into central Kansas, and the other from the Kansas City area on to the Northeast across northern Missouri into southeast Iowa and northern Illinois.  The new snow total forecast image below is valid through 6pm CST on Tuesday evening:

Meanwhile, the GFS takes a more "broad brush" approach, with a swath of heavy snow forecast from northwestern Oklahoma, straight Northeast through the KC Metro area.  The image below from that model is valid through the same time period:

Neither of these scenarios are etched in stone at this hour, and I think the main takeaway should be that heavy snow is likely from the northeast Texas panhandle, Northeastward across northwest Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.

When you look at all of the "major" American Composite model output for Wichita and Kansas City areas, the "average" snowfall amount that is produced is around 10 inches at Wichita and 12-14 inches at Kansas City.  The graphs are shown below:

In addition to the heavy snow, very strong winds will create widespread blowing and drifting, with blizzard/whiteout conditions likely in this entire area.  Such conditions were not present with the storm earlier this week, and I fear that some will think that they can do the same traveling they did with that storm with the upcoming one.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  You should simply plan to not travel across the aforementioned heavy snow region from Sunday night through Tuesday.

I encourage everyone living in this region to finish preparing for this storm tonight and during the day Sunday.  Please see these winter storm safety and preparedness tips for some guidelines (especially pages 8, 9 and 10).

Now that the bad news is over with, the good news is that the storm earlier this week and the next one are depositing much needed moisture on a drought striken area in the central Plains.  Here is the latest forecast for the liquid equivalent precipitation for Sunday night through Tuesday:

I do not expect this evening's computer models to change the forecast all that much.  With that in mind, I'll make another post with the latest information tomorrow morning.  You may also want to follow me on twitter and/or facebook (at the links below) for shorter updates in between and at other times as well...

For more information from 'The Original Weather Blog', including shorter, more frequent posts during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and twitter:

 

Coming March 2013:  The Tornado Chronicles full website!

• Interactive tornado database back to 1950 (earlier years coming soon)

• Interactive radar with live warnings and street-level zoom

• Tornado safety, preparedness and education

• Daily tornado outlooks/threat index

• Photos, videos & more!

Please show your support and follow The Tornado Chronicles on twitter and on facebook for the latest updates on tornadoes and the upcoming website!