Saturday, May 19, 2012

Disturbance Organizing Off of SC/NC Coasts...

Above is a recent visible satellite image showing an area of low pressure that is organizing to the immediate Southeast of the coasts of the Carolina's this morning (in the far upper right hand corner of the image).  Below is the same image zoomed in tightly on the SC/NC coastal bend:

Showers and thunderstorms are clearly visible across the northern and western sides of the system on the Wilmington area radar, and you can clearly see the circulation center about 95 nautical miles Southeast of the radar site, particularly when it is looped:

This system started to develop yesterday evening and has moved very little since then.  

The latest run of the high resolution NAM computer model brings the center of the system onshore tomorrow morning along the North Carolina coast.  The simulated radar image below is valid 12 Noon EDT and shows a still very compact system with heavy rain concentrated right around the center:

So far this system has not been officially classified as "tropical" (the National Hurricane Center says they are monitoring it).  None-the-less, folks along the Carolina coasts (and particularly from Charleston on Northward) should keep an eye on the system this weekend.  Wave action and rip currents will continue to increase all along the Carolina coastlines as this system meanders around today and moves closer to shore during the morning hours on Sunday, assuming the above model is correct (and based on recent trends, that appears to be the case).

We will continue to monitor this system and post any pertinent updates as conditions warrant.

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