Thursday, May 24, 2012

Disturbance Over Southeast Florida to Make an Encore Appearance Later This Weekend?

An area of disturbed weather is producing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, as well as strong, gusty winds, across southeast Florida and the Bahamas at this hour.  

An observing station located 8 miles South/Southeast of Key Biscayne, FL measured a wind gust of 43 mph during the last hour.  The Dinner Key Lighthouse measured a wind gust of 41 mph at nearly the same time.  These wind gusts were not associated with thunderstorms, but with the area of low pressure itself.  Gusts associated with thunderstorm activity in the region have been as high as 53 mph at Key Biscayne Park in the last hour.

The National Hurricane Center is "monitoring" the area, but has not deemed this a tropical system as of yet.

My primary concern is this:  The system is slowly moving East/Northeast and will exit Florida for the most part later today.  I am afraid that this will lead to a false sense of security across Florida and the Southeast U.S. as the system moves out into the Southwestern Atlantic through the first part of the weekend.

NAM Model Valid 8pm EDT Saturday 5/26/12
Shows System Turning Back to the W-SW

The thing to watch is that several of the computer forecast models (such as the NAM, above) are calling for the system to recurve back to the Southwest and take another run at the Southeast U.S. and/or Florida by the second half of the holiday weekend, this time as a well organized tropical system.

If you live across Florida and the Southeast U.S., please keep an eye on this system over the weekend, especially if you have outdoor holiday plans for Sunday and/or Monday.

For all of the latest, including satellite and radar loops, etc., please go to the Tropical Page at

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