An upper level weather disturbance will combine with increasing low level moisture and instability to yield scattered strong to severe thunderstorms later today over New Mexico and southwest Texas. The greatest risk lies within the yellow shaded area on the above image.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats in this region. It is likely that the activity will congeal into one or more clusters of thunderstorms by this evening and move Southeast across adjacent portions of West Texas during the night tonight and into the pre-dawn hours Monday.
The latter scenario will produce a swath of locally heavy rainfall from eastern New Mexico, South/Southeastward into adjacent portions of West Texas later tonight and into Monday morning:
Elsewhere, scattered strong thunderstorms are possible over the Southeast U.S. this afternoon and early this evening. A few of those storms could produce hail and/or wind gusts near severe limits, however widespread severe weather development is not expected.
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