Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Severe Weather Threat to Continue Central/Southern Plains Today and Wednesday...

There are two primary areas with an organized threat of severe thunderstorms for today, as indiciated within the yellow shaded areas on the above image.

The first region is across the central Plains.  Thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon or early this evening mainly near the Western edge of the outlook area, and spread Eastward throughout the evening hours and into at least early tonight.

Large hail will be the primary threat throughout the time period, with hailstones possibly exceeding 2 inches in diameter within the red shaded and black hatched area on the image below:

Isolated tornadoes are also possible, particularly within the first 1-3 hours after a thunderstorm develops.  This would particularly be the case with any storm that is able to remain isolated and become well organized.  By mid to late evening, one or more clusters or small complexes of thunderstorms are likely to develop and move East/Southeastward during the late evening and early tonight, with damaging wind gusts the primary severe weather threat by that time.

The second severe weather threat area for today lies across the Northeast and New England.  Thunderstorms are already underway this morning across the Ohio Valley.  This activity will grow stronger by midday and into the afternoon, with new development also taking place further to the Northeast across the severe weather outlook area.

Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats in this region, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out from any storm that is able to become well organized and isolate itself from the larger area of activity.

On Wednesday, a significant threat of severe weather is expected across the central and southern Plains once again, but perhaps on an even more widespread basis for a small part of the region, as indicated in red on the image below:

While severe storms will be possible anywhere within the yellow shaded area on the image above, a concentrated risk appears to be taking shape from southwest Kansas into central and northern Oklahoma (as indicated in red).  

Large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds can be expected to be the primary threat, however a few tornadoes are also possible, particularly within the first few hours of initiation late tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Hail may become particularly large, in excess of 2 inches, within the red and lavender shaded and black hatched area on the image below:

Folks living across the severe weather threat areas for today and tomorrow should remain alert.  Take a few moments early on to ensure that your severe weather safety kit is well stocked.  Be sure to identify your best sheltering option and have it ready in case you need to go there quickly.  Please make sure that you have a way to receive severe weather warnings for your area, and be prepared to seek shelter immediately if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued.

For all of the latest updates on the severe weather threat for both today and tomorrow, be sure to check on the Severe Weather Headquarters page at our sister site, WeatherGuidance.com.  This page is new and under near continuous development, so be sure to check back frequently for updated features and options over the coming hours and days.

For more information, including "live blogging" during rapidly changing weather events, please be sure to follow me on facebook and/or twitter:


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