Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Threat for San Antonio-Austin Corridor Shifting to Flash Flooding...

As you can see on the latest radar image above, a cluster of thunderstorms with very heavy rain, dangerous lightning, gusty winds and some spotty small hail continues to line the I-35 corridor from San Antonio through New Braunfels, Kyle and Buda and into Austin.  Activity is now developing Northward from Georgetown into the Temple area as well.  The cluster is moving slowly Eastward, while individual storms within it move Northeast at 40 mph.

Meanwhile, what was once the main band of thunderstorm activity out West is now moving toward the region, currently extending from West of Cotulla to Bandera and Kerrville and then on up toward Llano.  This band is moving Eastward at 25 mph, while the storms within move Northeast at 35-40 mph.

With the atmosphere along the I-35 corridor from Austin to San Antonio being "worked over" by thunderstorm activity for the last hour or so, the likelihood of the activity moving in from the West becoming severe is not particularly high.

Very heavy rain has already fallen (and continues to fall in some cases) along the I-35 corridor, and additional heavy downpours from the activity coming in from the West will further aggravate the threat of flash flooding.

The radar precipitation estimate product above shows widespread 3-5 inch rains from southeast San Antonio to near Garden Ridge.  Meanwhile, bands of 2-3 inch rains extend across Comal and eastern Hays counties.  An additional 2-3 inches of rain will be possible in some areas as the activity to the West moves into the region during the next 1-2 hours.

A Tornado Watch continues across the area until 5am CST.  Severe weather is still possible, but the immediate trends in the Austin/San Antonio areas currently point to a heavy rain, flash flooding and lightning threat.

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