Nothing has really changed from the posts I've been making throughout the day. I did want to post the latest images from the experimental HRRR computer forecast model, which are now coming into agreement with the scenario that we've been pointing out today...
Each of the following images depict what the model is forecsting the radar will look like at the specified times. First, at 6pm CST, showing vigorous thunderstorm development in central Arkansas:
Each of the following images depict what the model is forecsting the radar will look like at the specified times. First, at 6pm CST, showing vigorous thunderstorm development in central Arkansas:
...then expanding Northward and Eastward by 7pm and 8pm, respectively:
By 9pm CST, severe weather is forecast to be threatening the Memphis area, or immediately West of there:
...and then continuing on to the East by 10pm CST:
I think it's noteworthy that the model is forecasting the activity to remain in the form of smaller clusters or short lines through at least 10pm CST, which would correspond with a higher tornado threat before the activity congeals into more of a solid line (at which time the primary threat will shift more toward widespread, damaging wind gusts).
Folks across the region should stay alert this evening and tonight! Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or a trusted local media source for later watch and warning information.
The SPC in Norman, OK is obviously monitoring this area very closely. I would expect the first Tornado Watch to be issued anytime between now and 5:30 PM CST.
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