A few clusters of thunderstorms are breaking out along and South of a warm front across southern Alabama and central Mississippi at this hour:
Some of this activity may begin to produce marginally severe hail as the atmosphere becomes more unstable with afternoon heating over the next couple of hours.
Meanwhile...a vigorous upper-level weather disturbance continues to move out over the central Plains at this hour.
This disturbance will continue to move Eastward through this evening, and will cause rapid thunderstorm development to take place along and ahead of a surface cold front. The most likely place for thunderstorm initiation in association with these features will be across southeast Missouri and eastern Arkansas. It currently appears that the most likely time for this to take place will be after 5 or 6pm CST.
Once developed, this activity will increase in coverage and intensity while progressing Eastward into the evening and overnight hours across the yellow and red shaded areas on the latest SPC severe weather outlook below:
Tornadoes, large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are possible with this activity. It is possible that one or two of the tornadoes could become strong and/or long tracked. The greatest threat for a strong tornado will be within the red and black hatched area on the image below:
Since the majority of the significant severe weather threat is expected to take place after dark and even into the overnight hours further East, it will be critical for folks in these areas to have a way to monitor for severe weather updates even when asleep tonight. A NOAA Weather Radio with a battery back-up or some other source of 24-hour weather alerts is a must in this type of situation.
It is also critical that folks all across the region take this time to review severe weather safety tips before severe weather threatens. Have a sheltering location in mind should threatening weather approach your area later this evening or tonight. If you live in a mobile home without an underground shelter available in the immediate area, it would be a good idea to find an alternate place to stay tonight (with a sheltering option) if at all possible.
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