Saturday, January 7, 2012

Severe Weather Threat Deep South Into Southeast Next Week...

A threat of severe weather is shaping up for portions of the Deep South, Gulf Coast and into the Carolinas on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

A strong upper-level storm system, accompanied by a strengthening area of low pressure at the surface, will move East/Northeast across the region during the early and middle parts of the week.

While the wind profiles from the surface through the middle levels of the atmosphere will be very favorable for severe weather, the real issue comes down to how much low-level moisture and instability will become involved with the systems.

At this point, the primary severe weather threat area for Tuesday afternoon and evening appears to be within the red shaded areas on the image below:

The threat will then shift rapidly East/Northeast by Wednesday afternoon and evening, reaching the coastal portions of the Carolinas:

Wind profiles will favor rotation within the thunderstorms, which will produce a threat of at least isolated tornadoes in the above outlined areas.  Areas with a higher amount of moisture and instability in the low-levels of the atmosphere will have a higher threat of tornadoes.  On Tuesday afternoon, it appears that this will be the case in an area extending from southeast Louisiana across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama into the western Florida panhandle.

Damaging surface wind gusts will also be possible with any organized storms across the severe weather threat areas on Tuesday and Wednesday.

If you live in these areas, please monitor the latest forecasts and pay particular attention to the weather on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Review severe weather safety and preparedness tips and be prepared to seek shelter if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

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