Thursday, March 29, 2012

Severe Storms in the Central Plains / Mid-Missouri Valley Again Today...

Above is the severe weather outlook for today from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. Severe thunderstorms are forecast within the yellow shaded area on the image.

As was the case yesterday, a moist, unstable airmass is in place near weak surface boundaries in the central and part of the southern Plains.   One or more upper level disturbances will move across this region during the afternoon and evening, resulting in thunderstorm development, some of which will be severe.

Large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter) and damaging winds are likely with any severe storms that form in this region.  An isolated tornado or two is also possible.

The greatest risk of very large hail will reside within the red and black hatched area on the image below:

The enhanced risk of very large hail includes the Kansas City Metro area, as well as the cities of Topeka, Manhattan, Lawrence and Emporia.

Most of the vigorous thunderstorm development will take place from mid to late afternoon into this evening.  With low-level instability and upper-level energy stronger today than yesterday, the severe storms are likely to be more numerous this afternoon and evening as compared to yesterday.

Elsewhere, isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible Southward along the dryline from southcentral Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma, and perhaps parts of West Texas.  This would mainly be from late afternoon into the mid-evening hours, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threat in this region.

If you live in the severe weather threat areas for today, please remain on the alert.  Review your severe weather safety tips and be sure to identify the best sheltering option for you and your family at home, work or school.

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Anthill_Goddess said...

Ugh! I live almost directly on the line (NE side) where the slight risk ends and I never know if I should be nervous (my default setting!) or not! *Laughs* One station in DSM is saying "an isolated strong storm" for the metro, the other shows stronger storms moving directly over DSM. I really need to just live in a cave! :)

Rob White said...


I wouldn't be too concerned about this one for your immediate area today. The way things are trending storms will likely initiate to your immediate Southwest, and move Eastward or Southeastward(passing to your South).

The time window to watch near you will likely be 6-8pm. If anything is going to be able to skirt near your area it would likely be during that general timeframe...

Very large hail is the main threat today. Some hailstones were baseball size in northeast Kansas yesterday evening!