Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Threat of Severe Storms Middle Missouri and Mississippi Valley Region Later Today...

Above is the Severe Weather Outlook for today and tonight from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. Severe storms are forecast within the yellow shaded area on the image.

Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe weather threats later today, although an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out from any storm that is able to become well organized (this would be a very isolated situation, however).

A cold front is expected to be located along the Northwest edge of the severe weather risk area by early evening, from northwest Missouri into northwest Illinois.  At the same time, a weak disturbance in the upper atmosphere will approach from the West, resulting in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development along and ahead of the frontal boundary.

At this time it appears that thunderstorms aren't likely to develop in this region until this evening, after 6 or 7pm CDT.

Elsewhere, back to the West and Southwest, the above mentioned cold/cool front will stretch into southwestern Kansas by late afternoon, where it will intersect with a dryline that will extend Southward into the Oklahoma/Texas panhandle region and into southwest Texas.  

There will be a chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development along these boundaries (and particularly the dryline in southwest Texas) late this afternoon into this evening (see the green shaded area on the above image with the wording "See Text").

Though very isolated, any storm that forms in this region could become severe with large hail the main threat.

If you live across the severe weather threat area for later today, please remain alert.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, local media or another trusted source for the latest information, watches and possible warnings.  Take a few moments to review severe weather safety and preparedness tips and be ready to seek shelter if threatening weather is observed or a warning is issued for your area.

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