Monday, June 20, 2011

Severe Weather Outbreak Expected Later Today & Tonight


Above is the latest severe weather outlook for today from the SPC in Norman, OK.  Severe thunderstorms are possible anywhere within the yellow shaded regions.  An enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, exists within the red shaded areas on the same image.  This enhanced risk area may be extended further southward into portions of Kansas, western Missouri and Oklahoma by the midday update.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop, organize & intensify across southeast South Dakota and eastern Nebraska by mid to late afternoon.  This activity will then move East/Northeast into adjacent portions of Minnesota and Iowa.  Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible with this activity.  One or more strong tornadoes is possible in this region as well.

Other severe thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon or early evening, Southward along the dryline in central & eastern Kansas.  Very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible in this region.  At this time it appears that the greatest tornado potential in this region is likely to occur prior to sunset, with an evolution to a line of storms with wind damage being the greatest threat after that time.  Indications are that the wind damage threat may become significant and/or widespread in association with this activity by early to mid-evening.  This wind damage threat will extend Eastward into adjacent portions of Missouri later this evening & overnight tonight.

Potential for significant wind damage within black hatched area

A strong capping inversion will be present on the Oklahoma & Texas portions of the dryline this afternoon, however temperatures are forecast to rise high enough for thunderstorms to break the cap by early evening.  The wind and temperature profile in the atmosphere will be such that damaging winds, possibly significant in some areas, will be the greatest threat from this activity, along with large hail.  An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly within the first couple of hours of thunderstorm development.

Across the remainder of the outlook area, from the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic, scattered clusters of strong to severe storms are forecast to develop, mainly during the heat of the afternoon and into this evening.  It is hard to pinpoint any one area that is likely to experience any significant or organized severe weather at this time.  Large hail & damaging winds would be the greatest threat from this type of activity.

If you live anywhere within the above outlined areas, please take preparedness actions this morning so that you are ready for severe weather development this afternoon & evening.  Listen to a reliable local media or other trusted source for later information, watches & warnings.

3 comments:

Anthill_Goddess said...

You still think Columbia, MO looks to be past the tornado threat area?

Anthill_Goddess said...

My biggest concern, actually, is getting home tomorrow and not having to drive into more storms!

Rob In Texas said...

Anthill Goddess, the way things look to me at this time, the tornado threat would be well to the West of Columbia this evening, with a damaging straight line wind threat possible overnight as storms move in from the West.

You would likely have a window of opportunity to navigate back North between storms on Tuesday, and the overall threat (as far as coverage and severity of storms is concerned) does not appear to be as concentrated as compared to today.