Monday, June 27, 2011

Tropics Flaring Up?

The above satellite image was taken just a moment ago.  The red circled region on the image denotes a tropical disturbance over the Eastern part of the Bay of Campeche.  This system is currently dubbed "Invest 95L".  (For more information on the various stages of tropical system classification, see a recent post here).  It is drifting very slowly toward the West/ Northwest - a motion that is expected to continue for the next few days.

A "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft is scheduled to visit this disturbance tomorrow if it continues to slowly organize overnight.  Right now, middle & upper-level conditions are not favorable for rapid development, however that will change over the next few days, with more favorable conditions for development possible by Wednesday.

Very heavy rains and gusty winds will continue across portions of southeastern Mexico and much of Central America for the next few days as this system drifts slowly West/Northwestward.

Computer forecast models are currently keeping the system on a general West/ Northwestward track for the next 5-7 days, as shown on the latest composite computer model forecast image below:

Keep in mind that errors in the computer models can be quite large beyond the 2-3 day timeframe with this type of developing/infancy stage system, so take the above image "for what it's worth..."

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