Sunday, June 19, 2011

Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Likely Monday

Not to take anything away from the severe thunderstorm activity yet to occur later this afternoon & evening (some of which could be significant in its own right), however the weather situation coming up for tomorrow is starting to look more and more serious and merits as much advance notice as possible.

Below is the latest severe weather outlook for Monday from the SPC in Norman, OK.  Severe thunderstorms are possible anywhere within the yellow shaded areas, with an enhanced risk of severe weather (including one or more strong tornadoes) within the red shaded area:

Strong thunderstorm activity may develop as early as the morning hours on Monday across Northern portions of the red shaded area on the above image, with hail being the primary threat at that time.

A more significant threat of severe weather is then forecast to develop by late afternoon & evening, along and ahead of a cold front and beneath a strong jet stream disturbance.  The most likely area for initiation of this activity will be in southeastern South Dakota, southward into eastern Nebraska.  This activity will then move and/or develop Eastward across adjacent portions of Iowa and southern Minnesota during the late afternoon & evening hours.

Very large hail, damaging winds and one or more strong, potentially long track tornadoes will be possible in this region.  This enhanced risk of severe weather includes the cities of Omaha, Lincoln, Sioux Falls and Des Moines.

Other severe thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon or early evening southward along the dryline from extreme southcentral or southeast Nebraska into central & eastern Kansas.  Very large hail, damaging winds and isolated (but potentially strong) tornadoes will also be possible in these areas.  The main tornado risk in this region is expected to take place prior to sunset, with an evolution to a line of storms with damaging winds likely thereafter.

Further South, a more isolated threat of severe storms will exist along the dryline from western & central Oklahoma into extreme northwest Texas.  Very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible with any activity that is able to form in this region.

If you live anywhere within or near the above mentioned areas, and particularly within the area outlined in red on the above image, please pay very close attention to the weather on Monday afternoon & evening.  Develop a plan now and know what you would do in the event that threatening weather were to approach your area.


Anthill_Goddess said...

Ugh! As a "storm-a-phobe" I'm looking at taking a little vacay for tomorrow (much to my husband's dismay LOL) and tomorrow night. Would KC be far enough out of the tornado risk area to be "safe" or should I think about somewhere else? I'm coming from just south of the DSM area.

Shamrock said...

Rob, I hate to bother you yet again with a weather question..but, I am confused as usual. Much of middle and east TN is under tornado watch right now. 4pm-8pm EST. We are not under this watch. Just our little NE TN tip is clear. Other places around us like NC and SC and Georgia are under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning and again-it seems that just our NE tip is the only one not under this in the area. Now we are under a moderate threat for wind and hail today according to SPC. I just looked at our radar and the storms that are causing the watches seem to be going under us. Also, they are saying they expect another complex to come thru our area late tonight from the Ohio River Valley. Has this complex formed yet? I see some storms in that direction now but none heading for us. Are more going to form and if so how much of a chance do we have to get hit by these? Our Hazardous Weather Outlook says that these storms could cause isolated tornadoes. I just need a heads up, please. Sorry again for the questions.

Rob In Texas said...

Anthill_Goddess, Unfortunately the KC Metro area will also have a risk of severe weather, including tornadoes. You'd have to get yourself in a position outside of the yellow shaded area on the image to be completely out of the woods.

Columbia, MO would be the nearest larger city to the East of Kansas City enough to be out of the primary threat area (although they may well have activity Monday night that moves in from the West, but less tornado potential would exist at that time - mainly wind damage potential).

Rob In Texas said...

Shamrock, not a problem. It looks to me like the widespread rain & t-storm activity that moved through your region before Noon stabilized the atmosphere quite a bit. While new t-storms are forming to the West (over the Tornado Watch area) they are having a hard time getting organized as they move East (most, in fact are dissipating East of Nashville).

While an isolated strong or severe storm cannot be ruled out this afternoon or evening, I think you'll again want to watch further upstream for a complex of storms that could form and move into your region overnight or early Monday morning. By that time, very heavy rain, lightning and strong winds will be the primary threats once again...

Shamrock said...

Rob, thanks so much. I noticed those storms disappear off the radar! They're still trying to form though and any that do will be supercellular no doubt. I don't mind strong winds, lightning and heavy rain. As long as it's not damaging winds/tornado I'm good. We had one tornadot his year-that's enough for me.

Shamrock said...

Anthill, I used to DREAD severe thunderstorms before we were hit by a tornado. I was born and raised in California so I was spoiled on good weather. My first tornado watch in the South had me panicky and crying like a baby. Strangely being in a tornado has calmed me down-you'd think it would make it worse. I will keep you in my prayers. You're gonna be ok :)