Friday, June 17, 2011

Severe Weather Outlook for Today - Friday, 6-17-11

The above image is the latest severe weather outlook for today from the SPC in Norman, OK.  Severe thunderstorms are forecast within the yellow shaded areas on the image.  Within the overall severe weather risk area there is a region that has the best chance of organized severe weather, as shown by the red shaded region on the image below:

Large hail and damaging winds are the primary severe weather threats today, however isolated tornadoes also cannot be ruled-out, particularly within the red shaded area on the image above.  The chance of a tornado will be greatest within the first few hours of thunderstorm development this afternoon & evening, when storms are more isolated to scattered in coverage and better organized.  

Two complexes of strong to locally severe thunderstorms continue moving Southeast across the central third of the nation this morning.  The first is currently over eastern Kansas and western Missouri:

...and the second is currently over northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama:

Both of these complexes originated further to the Northwest yesterday evening and overnight, as individual thunderstorm clusters congealed together to form these systems.  They will continue drifting Southeastward this morning with marginally severe hail or wind gusts possible.  Heavy rain and dangerous lightning will be a greater hazard with this activity this morning.

By this afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop across the severe weather risk areas cited in the 1st and 2nd images on this post.  This development is most likely to occur by mid to late afternoon.  There are several surface boundaries that have been left behind by the thunderstorm complex moving across Kansas & Missouri, and these boundaries will be the primary focus for redevelopment this afternoon & evening.

As stated earlier, large hail & damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threats this afternoon & evening, however, as storms initially develop and are more isolated to scattered in nature, some tornado development will also be possible before the activity congeals into a larger complex of storms.

If you live in the above mentioned areas, please remain alert this afternoon & evening and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

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