Sunday, August 22, 2010

TD-9 a Potential Southwest U.S. Rainmaker?

At 7am Central Time this morning, the center of Tropical Depression 9 in the Eastern Pacific was located 205 miles Southeast of Puerto Escondido, Mexico.  Maximum sustained winds were 35 mph...and the system was moving toward the West at 6 mph.

The system continues to organize this morning...and is likely to become Tropical Storm Frank later today.  The system is then expected to intensify to hurricane strength late Monday or Tuesday.

The system is forecast to continue on a West then Northwest track, basically parallel to the Mexican coast over the next few days.

In the longer term, the system is likely to move up toward the Baja Peninsula this next weekend.  Moisture from the system could then spread Northward into parts of Arizona and New Mexico late this coming weekend or the early part of the following week.

The above image is a computer forecast model valid at 7am Central Time 1 week from today, Sunday, August 29.  The upper-left corner of the 4 panel image shows the location of what is likely to be Hurricane Frank (bright green circled area near the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula).  The lower right panel of the image shows the associated moisture (inside the red circle) increasing Northward into Mexico, toward  Arizona, New Mexico and far West Texas.  This will likely spread Northward with time into the early part of the following week.

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