The system we'd been blogging about over the weekend did eventually become Tropical Depression 4 and then Tropical Storm Colin, but it has since diminished into an area of low pressure today. As you can see by the satellite image above, the system is very disorganized, with no well-defined low level circulation currently indicated. The National Hurricane Center has discontinued issuing advisories on the system as of 5pm this evening.
A trough of low pressure in the Southwest Atlantic has created a band of stronger Westerly winds that have basically sheared the system apart today. The system is likely to remain just a weak low or disturbance Wednesday and Thursday, but could encounter more favorable conditions for redevelopment by Friday.
The $64,000 question is what will happen to Colin as he moves out into potentially more favorable conditions for re-development late this week? The current NHC guidance forecasts the system to reach a position off of the Southeast US Coast this weekend, and conditions could become more favorable for redevelopment in that area by then. We'll have to monitor the system as it passes East of the Bahamas on Friday and toward the areas Southeast of the US coast late this weekend.
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