Monday, April 25, 2011

Prospects of T-Storms Along I-35 Corridor in Central TX Fading....

The above visible satellite image shows a lot of things going on in the atmosphere across Texas.  Unfortunately, for those of us who really need the rain, it's not adding up to a whole lot at this point...

The dashed yellow line shows the approximate location of the dryline, which separates dry air to the West from moist, unstable air to the East.  This boundary is typically the focus for thunderstorm development, which has taken place across northcentral and now northeast Texas throughout the afternoon and so far this evening.

The bright red arrow shows the location of a strong band of winds in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, which also enhances thunderstorm development.  All of these ingredients are coming together to sustain strong thunderstorm activity across northeast Texas (generally within the purple encircled area), which will continue moving into adjacent portions of Arkansas and Louisiana during the evening hours.

Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes (which could be strong) are all possible with this activity.  Tornado Watches continue in effect for much of the region throughout the evening hours:

Further South along the dryline, a few thunderstorms have tried to develop along the boundary from Southwest of Waco to West of Georgetown (as shown by the light blue line annotated by the red arrows in the radar image below), but they have been unsuccessful thus far:

A strong capping inversion is the culprit for the inactivity further South.  Unfortunately, with most of the middle and upper-level energy passing to the North of the region (as noted above), there is little additional "help" available in assisting the thunderstorms from breaking the cap further to the South across central Texas.

There is still a slight chance that a thunderstorm could develop somewhere along or ahead of the dryline across the I-35 corridor in central Texas during the next 2 hours (before sunset), but that chance has now diminished to less than 20% in most areas.

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