Earl Turns As Expected - Watches Issued for U.S. Coast

At 4pm CDT...the center of Hurricane Earl was located about 150 miles East/Northeast of Grand Turk Island.  This position is also about 1,000 miles South/Southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 135 mph...which is no change from the earlier advisory.

Earl has made the expected turn toward the Northwest...at a current speed of 14 mph.  This general motion is expected to continue for the next 24-36 hours...with a turn more toward the North/Northwest expected thereafter.

Hurricane force winds currently extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.  Tropical Storm force winds currently extend outward up to 200 miles from the center.  


For the last several days we've been posting that a trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the Great Lakes region by late week.  This trough would force Earl to turn more toward the Northeast, out to sea.  Timing of the development of this trough is critical.  The latest computer model runs continue to slow the development of this trough, which means Earl has more time to move Westward toward the middle and upper Atlantic coast before making the turn.

The latest run of the GFS Model, which has been quite accurate so far this hurricane season, is currently forecasting Earl to track very near the North Carolina coast on Friday....

...and Cape Cod in Massachusetts late Friday/early Saturday....

Assuming Tropical Storm and Hurricane force winds extend outward from the center of Earl at least as far as they are now...deteriorating conditions can be expected in these areas late Thursday through Saturday.  With this in mind, Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches have been posted for the outer banks of North Carolina.  This means that Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane force winds are possible within 48 hours.

Residents along the East Coast from North Carolina through New England 

should remain alert and monitor the latest updated forecasts, watches and warnings concerning Earl.

Earl Maintains Intensity - Moving WNW

Major hurricane Earl continues to move West-Northwest through the Carribean this morning.  At 10am Central Time, the center was located 250 miles East of Grand Turk Island.  Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 135 mph.

Earl is still expected to take on more of a Northwest track later today and tonight, then reach a point between Florida & Bermuda by late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning, still as a "major" hurricane.

The last couple of computer forecast model runs have indicated that the trough of low pressure forecast to develop over the Great Lakes later this week (which would then force Earl to move more Eastward into the Atlantic and away from the U.S. coast) will do so more slowly than earlier forecast.  If this turns out to be the case, then there would be a greater threat to the East Coast, particularly starting around the Carolinas late Thursday or Friday.

With the above in mind, and considering the large overall size of Earl, I would expect to see the National Hurricane Center issue a hurricane watch for parts of the Carolina coast and/or mid-Atlantic region later this afternoon.

We'll continue to evaluate the afternoon computer model trends today and post a more detailed update later this evening.

Today in Severe Weather History for August 31

On this date in 1915, an unusually strong early season cold front caused the mercury to plummet to 38 degrees in Bartlesville, Oklahoma.  This established the lowest temperature ever recorded in the state of Oklahoma for the month of August, a record which still stands today.

Hurricane Earl Reaches Dangerous 'Category 4' Strength

The above is a "visible" satellite image of Hurricane Earl that was taken just as the sun was setting over the storm about 90 minutes ago.  Below is the most recent "infrared" satellite image of Earl, which is not dependent upon sunlight in order to show the system (it measures the temperature of the clouds instead, and paints the resulting picture).

As you can see, Earl has a well-defined eye, which at 6pm Central Time was centered about 95 miles Northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  As of the 6pm advisory, Earl had intensified to category 4 strength, with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph.

Below is the latest WSR-88D radar image from the San Juan radar site, which again shows the well-defined eye to the Northeast of San Juan:

Earl is currently moving toward the West/Northwest at 15 mph.  This general motion is expected to continue for the next 12-24 hours, with a gradual turn toward the Northwest expected over time.

Beyond Wednesday is where the forecast becomes interesting, particularly with respect to any potential impacts on the U.S. East Coast.  Below is the latest composite map showing the forecast tracks depicted by the major computer forecast models.

The important thing to remember when looking at either the National Hurricane  Center forecast track map (next to last image above) or the computer forecast model composite map (image above) is that Earl is larger than just one central point, (which is what these maps are tracking).  As of this writing, Tropical Storm Force winds extended outward up to 200 miles from the center, and Hurricane Force winds extended outward up to 70 miles from the center.  With this in mind, you can see how the center of Earl could pass well East of, say, the North Carolina coast, while dangerous winds and storm conditions could still affect the coastline and points inland.

The critical feature in determining Earl's potential impact on the U.S. appears to be the development of a trough of low pressure across the Great Lakes region by mid to late week.  If this feature develops and moves East rapidly, it will force Earl back out to sea.  On the other hand, if it develops more slowly and/or is further West from Earl than currently expected, Earl could move closer to the U.S. coastline (or potentially inland) before being turned back out toward the East.  

Residents all along the East Coast of the U.S., and particularly from the Carolina's Northward through New England, should maintain a close watch on Earl over the coming days and watch for updated forecasts & warnings.

Earl Continues to Organize & Intensify

Hurricane Earl continued to organize overnight.  As of 7am CDT this morning, the center of Earl was located about 25 miles North/Northeast of St. Martin.  This position is also about 140 miles East of St. Thomas.  Earl is moving toward the West/Northwest at 14 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 110 mph.

Earl is expected to take on more of a Northwestward motion over the next 24-36 hours, and is likely to continue strengthening during that time.

The most dangerous portion of Earl will pass safely North of Puerto Rico, however Tropical Storm force winds are still possible there today, particularly on North and Northeast sides of the island.

Residents along the U.S. East Coast should continue to monitor the progress of Earl this week, particularly from North Carolina on Northward.  Computer models continue to forecast Earl to remain safely offshore until perhaps reaching parts of New England toward the end of the week.  While the center of Earl is still expected to remain offshore at that time, the outer bands of stronger winds and thunderstorm activity could still affect parts of the region. 

Obviously any change in track toward the West could have a dramatic impact on the central and northern portions of the U.S. East Coast later this week, so all residents should remain alert and monitor updated forecasts and warnings.

Today in Severe Weather History for August 30

On this date in 1989, thunderstorms produced widespread large hail across portions of Montana and North Dakota.


Hail up to baseball size was reported near Medora, ND.  Golfball size hail was reported at Roundup, MT and Dazey, ND.

Hurricane Earl Strengthens - Nears Leeward Islands

The above radar image was taken at approximately 4pm Central Time (CDT), and shows the well defined "eye" of Hurricane Earl located about 150 miles East of Barbuda.  (If you'd like to bookmark the radar site for future reference, go here).  Earl was moving West at 14 mph...with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.

On its present track...tropical storm force winds will overspread the Leeward Islands later this evening, with hurricane force winds to follow late tonight and Monday.  As of 4pm CDT...Hurricane force winds extended outward for about 45 miles from the center.  Tropical Storm force winds extended outward for about 175 miles from the center.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St. Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius and the British Virgin Islands.

Earl is expected to take more of a turn toward the Northwest later on Monday and Tuesday, and is forecast to reach "major" hurricane strength (maximum sustained winds in excess of 110 mph) during the same time period.  

In the longer range, all of the major computer forecast models continue to show Earl being turned more toward the North by late Wednesday or early Thursday, roughly midway between Florida & Bermuda.  The same models then take Earl Northward from that point, eventually showing the system absorbed by a trough of low pressure exiting the U.S. Coast of New England late this week or early this weekend.

Composite map showing computer forecast model tracks of

Hurricane Earl through 9-1-10.

GFS Model forecast showing Hurricane Earl well East of the

North Carolina coast, valid 7am CDT Thursday, 9-2-10.

(Note purple circle denoting location of Earl on upper 2

panels of the image).

GFS Model forecast showing Hurricane Earl absorbed by an

upper-level trough of low pressure East of Cape Cod.

Valid 7pm CDT Friday, 9-3-10.  (Note purple circle denoting

location of Earl on upper 2 panels of the image).

Unless something dramatic changes insofar as the forecast track of Earl is concerned, it would appear that the Southeast U.S. can breathe a sigh of relief at this point.  However, anyone from North Carolina on northward along the East Coast should remain alert and closely monitor the forecast track of Earl this coming week.

"Invest 97" Should Be A Depression Soon

Conditions remain extremely favorable for a disturbance located between the African Coast and the Lesser Antilles to become at least a Tropical Depression later today.

Computer forecast models are predicting that the system will then move along a track very similar to what we've seen from Hurricane Earl over the past few days.

Earl Reaches Hurricane Strength

Earl reached hurricane strength less than an hour ago, according to data obtained by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system.  

At 7:30 am Central Time this morning...the center of Earl was located about 365 miles East of the northernmost Leeward Islands.  The system was moving West at 18 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph.

Earl is expected to continue on a general Westward track today, with a gradual turn toward the West/Northwest tonight and Monday.  

On the current forecast track, the center of the system will pass to the North of Puerto Rico sometime early Tuesday morning.  The extent of hurricane force winds from the center at that time will be critical in determining whether strong winds will affect Puerto Rico.  A hurricane watch is in effect for Puerto Rico at this time...meaning that hurricane force winds are possible within 48 hours.

In the longer term, Earl is forecast to become a major hurricane by Wednesday, and is expected to be located to the East of the Bahamas at that time.  The $64,000 question is, of course, what track will Earl take beyond that point in time?

At present, most computer forecast models call for Earl to be curved off toward a more Northerly track once the system reaches the midway point between Florida and Bermuda.  This track would spare the Southeast U.S. of any threat.

Beyond that point in time (now we're talking the end of the week and first part of the Labor Day weekend), a trough of low pressure is forecast to move across the Northeast U.S.  Earl's interaction with this trough would be critical in determining whether any threat will exist for the Northeast U.S./New England area.

Residents all along the U.S. East Coast (and Bermuda) should remain alert this week and monitor the latest forecasts on the expected track of Earl.

Danielle Racing Out to Sea

Hurricane Danielle was centered about 440 miles East of Bermuda early this morning...and was moving Northeast at 21 mph (which is rather fast for a hurricane).  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 90 mph.

Danielle is expected to continue weakening and accelerating to the Northeast as several low pressure troughs move West of the area during the next 24-48 hours.  Danielle is likely to lose tropical characteristics sometime Monday night or early Tuesday, while remaining out to sea the entire time.

Today in Severe Weather History for August 29

High Resolution Satellite Image of Katrina Approaching Louisiana on 8-29-05

On this date in 2005, Hurricane Katrina slammed into the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi as a strong category 3 (or borderline category 4)  storm.

  

Eyewall of Katrina as viewed from a NOAA aircraft

 before making landfall in Louisiana on 8-29-05

Sustained winds of 125 mph were reported at numerous stations in southeast Louisiana, including Buras-Triumph and Breton Sound.  Total damage was estimated at $81.2 billion.

Perhaps the most significant of all damage was caused by the catastrophic flooding that resulted from the breaching of over 50 levees in the New Orleans area alone.  This resulted in over 80% of the city being submerged in up to 10 feet of water.

Horribly stunning figures:  1800 people were killed (1500 in Louisiana and 300 in Mississippi).  Over 200 more were categorized as "missing" and can be presumed dead.  Over 3 million people were without power and other resources  for months after the event.  To this day, debris remains in many coastal areas of southeast Louisiana.

To date, Katrina remains the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.  Due to the massive loss of life and property damage, her name was retired and will never be used again.

Tropical "Invest 97" Organizing Over Atlantic

An area of disturbed weather continues to develop and organize over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic this morning. This disturbance, located about 250 miles Southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands, is moving West at 15-20 mph.  Conditions are favorable for this system to become either a Tropical Depression or Storm over the next 24-36 hours.

In the longer term, computer forecast models initially take this system on much the same track that Tropical Storm Earl has maintained thus far...

"Earl" Still A Storm for Now...

At 4am CDT...the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located about 800 miles East of the northernmost Leeward Islands.  Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 60 mph.

Earl was moving toward the West at 21 mph...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24-48 hours.  A gradual turn toward the Northwest is expected by Monday.

With maximum sustained winds of 60 mph...Earl remains classified as a Tropical Storm this morning.  Further intensification is likely over the next 24-36 hours, with Earl expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Sunday morning.

In the longer range, Earl is expected to be curved up toward the region between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda by mid to late week.  Exact timing and track will depend on the development of a trough of low pressure across the Eastern U.S., and how that interacts with Earl.  

Residents of both the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda should remain alert and monitor updated forecasts on Earl's track as the coming week progresses.

Danielle Passing Southeast of Bermuda

As of the 4am CDT advisory this morning...the center of Hurricane Danielle was located 320 miles Southeast of Bermuda.  Maximum sustained winds were near 110 mph, making Danielle a strong Category 2 storm.  

Danielle is moving toward the North at 9 mph...and this general motion is expected to continue today, with a gradual turn toward the Northeast.  

Tropical storm force winds currently extend about 205 miles outward from the center of Danielle.  This would tend to limit tropical storm force wind potential on the island of Bermuda to just gusts within passing thunderstorms along the outer edge of the system.

Residents of Bermuda should not only continue to watch Danielle until she safely passes later today and tonight, but also keep an eye on Earl, which could impact the area later next week...

Today in Severe Weather History for August 28

On this date in 1959, Lt. Col. William Rankin ejected from his F-8 fighter jet when the engine failed right on top of a thunderstorm along the U.S. East Coast.


He went on a wild ride from 45,000 feet, down through the thunderstorm, being buffeted up and down by updrafts and downdrafts.  The descent, which would normally have taken 10 minutes, reportedly took over 45.  He described it as one of the most "bizarre and painful" experiences imaginable.  He even thought he had died at one point.


He went on to write a book about the experience.  Used copies are still available today on Amazon.  An Amazon user, describing himself as Rankin's nephew, recently posted a review stating that the historic aviator died on July 6, 2009, nearly 50 years later.

Tropical Storm Earl Getting Organized

Tropical Storm Earl continues to organize out over the open Atlantic.  At 4am Central time this morning...the center of Earl was located about 1430 miles East of the northernmost Leeward Islands.  Earl was moving West at 17 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.

Earl is currently forecast to continue moving in a general Westward direction for the next few days, then gradually start turning more toward the Northwest by early next week.

Earl is forecast to become a hurricane over the second half of this weekend.  In the longer range, the forecast models (see image below) start turning Earl more out on a Northward track by early next week, with a potential impact on Bermuda by as early as mid-week.  This is obviously a "long-range" forecast in hurricane terms, so we'll need to monitor trends closely for any shift in track.

Danielle Now a Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane

We pointed out in yesterday evening's post that Danielle was likely to become a "major" hurricane soon...and that has already happened literally overnight.  As of the 4am Central Time advisory this morning...maximum sustained winds were estimated at 135 mph.  The center of the storm (as noted by the very impressive "eye" on the satellite image above) was located about 545 miles Southeast of Bermuda.

Danielle is currently moving toward the Northwest at 12 mph.  At this point we would typically be very concerned about a dangerous, category 4 hurricane moving toward the island of Bermuda.  The good news is that a trough of low pressure moving along the North American coast is expected to move out over the Atlantic during the next 24 hours.  This will cause Danielle to turn toward the North, then Northeast. 

At this point it appears that the center of Danielle will pass well to the East of Bermuda sometime late Saturday or early Sunday.  Residents of the island should remain on high alert and monitor the forecasts just in case something unexpected takes place.

Also, Bermuda, don't let your guard down after Danielle.  Earl could actually pose a more direct threat by mid-week next week.  Stay tuned!