Saturday, April 9, 2011

Tornado Outbreak Possible Sunday Afternoon

The above image shows the latest severe weather outlook for Sunday via the SPC.  Severe storms are forecast within the area outlined in green, while a more concentrated severe weather threat is forecast in the area outlined in red.  Strong, long track tornadoes will be possible in the area outlined in red (and adjacent areas) on Sunday afternoon & evening.

In the image below, the areas outlined in purple and red have the greatest likelihood of experiencing severe storms with very large hail, damaging winds and possibly strong tornadoes on Sunday (the area in purple is at highest risk of such activity):

Severe storms are forecast to form during the afternoon across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, and track Eastward/Northeastward into adjacent portions of Wisconsin and Illinois.  Tornadoes are likely with the stronger storms, and some tornadoes could be strong and/or long lived.

Residents across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Midwest should remain on high alert Sunday afternoon and evening, and be prepared to seek shelter if threatening weather approaches.

Further southwest, additional severe thunderstorm development is forecast along and ahead of a cold front/dryline feature as far back to the southwest as portions of northcentral and northeast Texas.  The further southwest along the dryline you travel, the more isolated the severe threat will be (again, due to a strong capping inversion that will be in place much like today).  The difference on Sunday is that stronger upper level support will likely allow for more development further southwestward than on Saturday.

Any storm that does form in this region will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

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