As we first reported in a post yesterday, a major outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon & evening across portions of the central & southern Plains.
The highest risk of severe storms, including the potential for several long track, strong & damaging tornadoes, is located within the pink and red shaded regions on the image above. This includes the cities of Wichita, Hutchinson, Pratt, Kansas City, Emporia, Columbia, Springfield, Joplin, Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Ponca City, Enid, Muskogee, Stillwater, Fayetteville, Ft. Smith, Rogers, and the Dallas / Ft. Worth area.
Significant tornado activity is possible anywhere within the pink, red and black hatched region on the image below:
A very strong upper-level storm system is rotating out over the central & southern Rockies this morning. This system will lift out to the Northeast over the Western part of the highest risk area by mid-afternoon, resulting in explosive thunderstorm development along a dryline from central Kansas into western and central Oklahoma.
Once developed, thunderstorms will initially move Northeast or East/Northeast, then turn more Eastward as they mature and produce tornadoes. At least a few of the tornadoes are likely to be long track, strong and potentially very damaging. In addition, very large hail (potentially baseball size or larger) and damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible with this activity.
The activity is expected to move and/or develop Eastward into adjacent portions of southeast Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, southwest Missouri and western Arkansas during the evening hours. The significant tornado and very large hail threat will continue as the activity progresses into this region. This unfortunately means that there is the potential for a very dangerous tornado threat after dark over the aforementioned areas of Missouri and Arkansas, as the storms continue Eastward.
This is a potentially very dangerous, life threatening situation for the highest risk areas described above. Please remain on a high state of alert and be prepared to seek shelter immediately if threatening weather approaches your area this afternoon or evening.
Further Southward along the dryline in Texas, isolated to scattered severe storms are also expected to develop by late afternoon and into this evening. Tornadoes, very large hail and damaging winds will also be possible in this area. This activity is expected to move Northeast or East/Northeast initially, and will likely turn more Eastward as storms mature. A strong tornado is also possible in this region, particularly over northwest Texas this evening.
Elsewhere, severe thunderstorms, including at least isolated tornadoes, are possible anywhere within the yellow shaded region on the 1st image.