Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Thunderstorm Initiation - Southwest & WestCentral Oklahoma

As you can see by the latest radar image above, we have thunderstorm initiation right on schedule in west-central and southwest Oklahoma.  The 3 developing storms are near Altus, west of Hobart and just west of Clinton.

They are initially moving North/Northeast but will start turning more toward the Northeast as they continue to develop over the next hour.

One or more of these storms should be quite well developed by 3pm.  On a day like today with the dynamics & instability as strong as they are, it would only take 60-90 minutes for a storm to mature and produce a significant tornado threat.  I'm not saying that will necessarily be the case with each of these 3 storms, but that is certainly a possibility.

As the afternoon wears-on, say toward the 4-5pm timeframe, the time required for a developing storm to mature and produce a tornado will decrease to under 1 hour as winds will have increased at all levels of the atmosphere across western & central Oklahoma ahead of an approaching upper-level storm.


The Planet Pink said...

How quickly will these move? I have to pick up the girls at 3:30 from school before going to our shelter, but I can do it earlier if necessary.

Rob In Texas said...

Planet Pink,

No worries. You are good through 6pm at the earliest and most likely 7pm or after...

Things, so far, are going right along with what I outlined in the midday update: http://originalweatherblog.blogspot.com/2011/05/severe-weather-update-for-this.html

Also, keep in mind that when the storms are first forming today they are going to move in a completely different direction and at a faster speed than when they mature. Once matured today, storms will generally moving Eastward, even though they start out moving North or Northeast.

The Planet Pink said...

ok, good to know. Thank you!