Monday, May 23, 2011

Severe Weather Update - Oklahoma

The above Tornado Watch was just issued for much of western and portions of central Oklahoma, as well as part of extreme northwest Texas.  It is valid until 10pm CDT.

Thunderstorms are expected to form over this region during the next 1-2 hours.  Very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are possible in and close to the watch area.

Once formed, thunderstorms in this region are expected to move toward the East at 25 mph.

Additional thunderstorm development may also take place later this afternoon or early this evening across portions of northeast or east-central Oklahoma, near old outflow boundaries from morning and midday thunderstorm activity.  This area is also being monitored for a possible severe weather watch.


The Planet Pink said...

The storms that are forming to the northwest of OKC and moving eastish - is there strong likelyhood they'll persist as far as Tulsa? And if so is there a time frame? Just wondering if we should plan to hang out at the mall tonight. :-(

Rob In Texas said...

The storms out West would take at least 3-4 hours to move into your area (i.e., after 7 and quite possibly not until 8pm or so). I think they will move into your area one way or another, only question being whether it will be as individual cells (which would have greater tornado potential) or as a larger complex of storms with lesser chances of tornadoes and more heavy rain and hail/gusty wind potential later this evening or overnight.

My gut feeling at this time is that by the time the storms out West move your way, it will be more of a larger complex of storms with less of an overall tornado threat.

In the short range (next 2-3 hours) I would be more concerned about development right over or very near Tulsa along that old outflow boundary. That is certainly possible over the next few hours. The boundary currently runs from southeast Osage county, through Tulsa (NW to SE) to near Muskogee.

While a tornado cannot be ruled out with any storm that forms along the outflow boundary late this afternoon or early this evening, very large hail would likely be the greatest threat.