Sunday, May 22, 2011

Severe Weather Outlook for Sunday

Severe thunderstorms will once again form along and ahead of a surface dryline and Pacific cool front across a large portion of the central U.S. and Midwest this afternoon & evening.   In general, severe storms are possible anywhere within the yellow shaded areas on the image above.

The greatest threat of significant severe weather, including particularly large hail & possible tornadoes, will occur within the red and black hatched region on the image below:

This enhanced risk of severe weather includes the Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Ft. Smith, Springfield, Columbia St. Louis and Chicago areas.

The SPC has just issued a statement advising they are also going to "upgrade" the following area to a Moderate risk for today on the 8am update:

This simply means that thunderstorms will likely be more widespread in this region.  This does not mean that the risk of very large hail and/or tornadoes is confined only to this area.  That risk will also include any location within the red and black hatched area on the 2nd image above (including the cities that were listed immediately following that image).

If you live in or near these areas, please pay particular attention to the weather on Sunday afternoon & evening.


The Planet Pink said...

I do not like these weather patterns, where storms can just pop up anywhere they please within an area and you can't really predict it, and they become severe almost instantly. Makes it much harder to plan and prepare. I'll be holding my breath until Wednesday I fear.

Side note, what time system does the SPC use and why? I find myself constantly having to do the math! haha.

Rob In Texas said...

Planet Pink, Dryline is still West of you as of 3:30pm, with cumulus towers along it trying to break the cap at this time. Storm coverage won't likely be solid along the dryline, but what scattered storms do form will be very severe.

This is one of those situations where there is probably only a 30% chance of a thunderstorm at any given location (including yours), but a 100% chance that those storms that do form will be severe. Stay alert and stay tuned!