Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Severe Weather Update - Central & South Texas

The above image shows a recent snapshot of the Austin area radar.  Thunderstorms continue in a nearly solid line ahead of the dryline from near Hamilton to north of Fredericksburg.  The line is moving East while individual storms move Northeast.  Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are all possible with this activity.

As you can see, additional development is trying to taking place south of this line, to the West of San Antonio and Austin.  High resolution computer forecast model data continues to develop this activity and move it into the I-35 corridor area (including both Austin & San Antonio) later this afternoon and early this evening.  Below are the latest images from that model for 4pm, 5pm and 6pm this afternoon:

HRRR Model valid 4pm CDT 5-11-11

HRRR Model valid 5pm CDT 5-11-11

HRRR Model valid 6pm CDT 5-11-11

When examining the above model forecasts, keep in mind that the exact location of the storms at the indicated times will not be 100% accurate, this is only a computer model simulation of what the radar will look like at each specified time. You can also see how the line over north Texas and Oklahoma is forecast to develop and move by that time as well.

Large hail & damaging winds will be the primary threats with activity this afternoon & evening across southcentral & central Texas.  Isolated tornadoes are also possible, particularly with any isolated storms that manage to form out ahead of the main line.

You may also note that this model does not currently show redevelopment of severe storms over West Texas or Western Oklahoma along the dryline later this afternoon, through at least early evening.  That is certainly a possibility, although this model does better forecasting the movement and development of existing storms, rather than forecasting new development.

Stay tuned for later posts on the potential for redevelopment along the dryline late this afternoon or this evening, particularly in Oklahoma and southwest or southcentral Kansas.

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