Saturday, May 7, 2011

Update on High Plains Severe Weather Outlook...

A surface dryline will continue to set-up and grow stronger over the next several days across the High Plains of the central & southern U.S. (as is typical for this time of year).  At the same time, however, a strong capping inversion will also exist across much of the region, which will tend to limit thunderstorm development.  Any thunderstorm that does manage to form along the dryline late each afternoon will likely become severe due to the increasingly unstable airmass that is forecast to be in place.

Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible with any severe thunderstorm that does form.

In particular, there are 2 upcoming days where chances of thunderstorm development seem to be higher at this time.  The first will be tomorrow, Sunday.  The SPC is currently forecasting isolated severe storms in the areas outlined in yellow on the image below:

An even greater chance of severe thunderstorm development, including tornadoes, appears to be shaping up for this coming Wednesday.  The areas outlined in purple on the image below show the primary threat area for Wednesday:

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