Saturday, May 21, 2011

Severe Weather Update - Central Plains

The above visible satellite image was taken just a few moments ago.  The red arrows that I 've added in Nebraska show an outflow boundary that is moving slowly Eastward across the southeast and east-central part of the state.  It connects with a weak surface front (light blue dashed line) over southcentral Nebraska, which extends to the Southwest across Kansas.  A dryline extends from near the front around Dodge City, Southward into central Oklahoma.

An upper-level weather disturbance is lifting out over the western parts of the region at this time, and will continue moving East/Northeast this afternoon.  Meanwhile, low level moisture and instability are flowing Northward through the region on increasing Southerly winds.

Thunderstorms are first expected to form near the outflow and/or frontal boundaries across southeast or east-central Nebraska into adjacent portions of western Iowa.  This will most likely occur after 2pm CDT.  Once formed, this activity will move/develop East/Northeast with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.  Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, particularly in association with an organized and/or long-lived storm.

Additional development is expected Southward along the dryline and/or frontal boundary as they advance Eastward into central and eastern Kansas.  This would most likely occur after 3-4 pm CDT.  Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible with this activity.

No comments: