A very strong middle and upper-level storm system will move out over the Central Plains on Tuesday afternoon and evening, along with a strong area of low pressure and frontal boundary at the surface. While there is no question that the dynamics of these systems are quite strong (which would normally lead to widespread severe weather), there are still many questions about just how extensive of an event this will turn out to be.
The above image is the latest severe weather outlook for Tuesday and Tuesday Night, from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. Severe thunderstorms are possible within and near the yellow shaded areas on the image. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are all possible with severe storms across this region.
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and ahead of the surface cold front across the Kansas/Nebraska outlook area by mid-afternoon and continue Eastward during the evening hours. Hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats, however an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out in this region.
Further South, the situation is less clear-cut. Low-level moisture will begin flowing rapidly Northward into the Oklahoma and Arkansas risk area tonight. This will lead to widespread cloudiness, as well as light precipitation breaking out during the day Tuesday. The main question is how much of an effect the cloudiness and rain will have on the atmosphere's ability to become unstable enough to support a severe weather threat.
At this time, I would expect thunderstorms to develop along the cold front and or dryline near the Western edge of the severe weather outlook area in Oklahoma by mid to late evening Tuesday, with the threat then shifting Eastward into Arkansas and the middle to lower Mississippi Valley region after Midnight and into the pre-dawn hours Wednesday.
The wind profile across this region will be favorable for some storms to rotate and produce tornadoes. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are also possible with severe storms in this region.
Folks living across the above mentioned areas should remain alert on Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Listen to local media or another trusted source for the latest weather information and possible warnings. I would strongly suggest that you take the time now to review severe weather safety and preparedness tips, that way you're ready to take action if threatening weather approaches your area.
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