Friday, February 3, 2012

Severe Weather Threat Across Southern Plains Today/Tonight...

Above is the latest severe weather outlook for today from the SPC in Norman, OK. Severe thunderstorms are possible within the yellow shaded areas on the image, which includes the cities of Tulsa, Oklahoma City, the DFW Metroplex, Austin, San Antonio and Shreveport.

Large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are the primary threats across the severe weather outlook area today and/or tonight.  The threat of large hail will be greatest within the yellow shaded areas on this image:

An isolated tornado or two also cannot be ruled out, particularly with any storm that is able to become well organized and remain rather isolated.  There are two pockets where this appears to be most likely at this time, which are indicated by the brown shaded areas on the following image:

Currently, a large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms continues to move slowly Eastward across Oklahoma, and into southern Kansas:

A Tornado Watch continues for the southern portion of this area of thunderstorm actiivty, over much of western and central Oklahoma, until 10am CST:

Hail and/or wind gusts near severe limits appears to be the greatest threat from this activity at the present time, although an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

This activity is likely to continue to move and/or develop Eastward over time, and may redevelop and/or intensity across portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this afternoon.  Again, large hail and strong, possibly damaging wind gusts would be the primary threats, along with widespread locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.

By late afternoon and into this evening, additional thunderstorm development is forecast to take place along a cold front and dryline feature that is forecast to extend from southcentral Oklahoma into northcentral Texas.  This activity is likely to develop Southward along and West of the I-35 corridor, perhaps as far as the Austin/San Antonio area by mid to late evening.

Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with this activity, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with any particularly organized thunderstorm.

This activity is likely to congeal into a large complex of thunderstorm activity that will then move East/Southeast across eastcentral and southeast Texas tonight, possibly reaching western Louisiana by Saturday morning.

The potential for locally heavy rainfall will also be widespread across the region today and tonight.  The latest rainfall forecast from the HPC is shown below, which indicates widespread 1-2 inch amounts, with localized amounts over 3 inches possible across the central and southern Plains into the Mississippi River Valley:

Folks living across the severe weather outlook areas should remain alert today and tonight.  Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or a trusted local source for later statements, watches and possible warnings.  Be sure to review severe weather prepardness tips in advance, and have a sheltering plan in place should severe weather threaten your area.

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The Planet Pink said...

Looking forward to the rain, but I was bummed to see the yellow risk area snake up to Tulsa this morning. Looks like storm season is starting early this year. :(

Rob White said...

Planet Pink, I think the greatest threat for your area is hail, and to a lesser extent strong wind gusts. Not too concerned about a tornado threat up that way the way it is trending right now...

So, enjoy the rain and maybe you'll dodge any hail that's out there!

The Planet Pink said...

Thankful we have a garage!