Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Update on Winter Storm Shaping Up for Late Week / This Weekend...

In a post on Sunday I cautioned folks in the central and southern Rockies and adjacent Plains to keep an eye out for an approaching weather system from Friday into the weekend.  Computer model runs since that time have continued to signal a major winter storm taking shape, but have gradually moved the threat further and further North over time.  Since late Monday or yesterday, the models are consistently signalling that the region from the central Rockies into the adjacent central Plains of eastern Colorado and portions of Nebraska and Kansas will be the main "line of fire" with this system.

With the above in mind, here is how the HPC is currently forecasting the threat of greater than 4, 8 and 12 inches of snow, respectively, for the period 6am CST Friday through 6am CST Saturday:

The probability of each amount of snow is greatest within the red outlined area, with a "moderate" threat in the green outlined area and a "slight" threat in the blue outlined area.

I'm not ready to pinpoint any accumulations myself as there is still some uncertainty with respect to how this thing is going to come out, but the above should give you a good idea as to whether or not you live in or close to an area that is likely to receive potentially heavy snow.

It is also important to keep in mind that the snow will continue into the daytime hours Saturday (beyond the valid period of the above maps) across much of Nebraska (especially the central and east) and will also spread into Iowa on Saturday and Saturday night, where the snow will also become locally heavy there, especially across the northern and central two thirds of the state the way it looks right now.

If you live across the above mentioned areas, please keep an eye on the weather and listen for later updates as the situation progresses.  Now that we are getting closer to the event you can expect to see regular updates on the progress of this storm here on the blog.

I'll be making a separate post shortly which will cover the heavy rain and severe weather threat out ahead of the winter storm system for the southern and central Plains.

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