The latest severe weather outlook from the SPC in Norman, OK is shown above. Severe thunderstorms are forecast within the yellow shaded area on the image, which includes the Lufkin, Houston, Shreveport, Lake Charles and New Orleans areas.
An upper level weather disturbance will lift to the Northeast over the region later this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along a surface frontal boundary near the Western edge of the outlook area by mid to late afternoon, and will move and/or develop toward the East/Northeast during the evening.
Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible with any severe storms that form in this region.
As mentioned in an update late yesterday afternoon, the tornado threat is not as great as it normally would be due to the fact that low-level winds are forecast to remain relatively weak across the primary threat area. This condition has not changed during the overnight hours, so I do not see this being a widespread tornado event, although some of the stronger, well organized storms may produce a tornado.
Thunderstorms are also forecast to develop along and North of a warm front from Arkansas into Mississippi and Alabama, mainly late this afternoon and into this evening. This activity is not forecast to become severe on a widespread basis, however hail near severe limits will be possible. The more organized, severe activity that forms to the West may move into portions of Mississippi late this evening and early tonight...so folks in this region should keep an eye out to the West later this evening.
In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall is likely with some of the activity today and tonight:
If you live across the severe weather outlook or adjacent areas, be sure to remain alert this afternoon and evening. Take the time now to review severe weather safety and preparedness tips and be sure that you have a sheltering plan in mind should severe weather threaten your area.
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