Saturday, February 11, 2012

Update on Winter Weather Event for Oklahoma / Arkansas / Missouri on Sunday Night & Monday...

Some of the latest computer forecast model runs are becoming a bit more aggressive as far as snowfall potential goes for portions of northeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas tomorrow night and into Monday.

The latest run of the NAM computer model snowfall forecast is shown below, centered on the Tulsa area:

As you can see, this particular model is now calling for a fairly wide swath of 4-8 inch snowfall, extending from Tulsa (on the 4 inch side) to between Joplin and Coffeyville (on the 6-8 inch side), and on up toward west-central Missouri.  Most of this precipitation would fall after Midnight Sunday night, and into the forenoon on Monday.

On the other hand, the GFS computer model is much less aggressive, forecasting 2 inches of snow (or less) across northeast Oklahoma and southeast Kansas, with heavier amounts of 4-5 inches across portions of southwest Missouri:

There are still quite a few variables to be defined here, but at the moment I'd side more with a consensus blend of the two models, which would yield 2-3 inches across most of the Tulsa area, with heavier amounts as you move Northeast toward the Kansas/Missouri border and adjacent areas of those states.

We'll be able to monitor trends through the day on Sunday and revise this outlook if needed as the situation draws near.

Meanwhile, it still appears that freezing rain will become rather widespread across southeast Oklahoma, extreme northeast Texas and on into western Arkansas during the day Monday.  The latest run of the SREF model is shown below, with areas of up to one-tenth of an inch of ice accumulation through 12 Noon CST Monday, shown in light blue:

Folks across this area should keep an eye on the weather later tomorrow and on into Monday.  If you have to travel during the Sunday night and Monday time period, it would be wise to allow extra time to safely reach your destination.

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